Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

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Source Information: Technical Summary

Section A: Introduction

Technical Summary Section and Topic – Chapter Section

A.1 The IPCC and its Working Groups
Introduction to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (from the IPCC Secretariat, Geneva) or the IPCC web page at http://www.ipcc.ch

A.2 The First and Second Assessment Reports of Working Group I

IPCC, 1990a: Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment. J.T. Houghton, G.J. Jenkins and J.J. Ephraums (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 365 pp.

IPCC, 1992: Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment. J.T. Houghton, B.A. Callander and S.K. Varney (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 198 pp.

IPCC, 1994: Climate Change 1994: Radiative Forcing of Climate Change and an Evaluation of the IPCC IS92 Emission Scenarios. J.T. Houghton, L.G. Meira Filho, J. Bruce, Hoesung Lee, B.A. Callander, E. Haites, N. Harris and K. Maskell (eds.), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom, 339 pp.

IPCC, 1996a: Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Houghton, J.T., L.G. Meira Filho, B.A. Callander, N Harris, A. Kattenberg, and K. Maskell (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 572 pp.

A.3 The Third Assessment Report: This Technical Summary

Background to these questions is in Chapter 1.
Box 1: What drives changes in climate? – Chapter 1.

Section B: The Observed Changes in the Climate System

Technical Summary Section and Topic – Chapter Section

B.1 Observed Changes in Temperature
Temperatures in the instrumental record for land and oceans - Chapter 2.2.2 and 2.3.
Temperatures above the surface layer from satellite and weather balloon records - Chapter 2.2.3 and 2.2.4.
Surface temperatures during the pre-instrumental record from the proxy record
Last 1,000 years - Chapter 2.3.
Last glacial and deglaciation - Chapter 2.4.

B.2 Observed Changes in Precipitation and Atmospheric Moisture
Annual land-surface precipitation - Chapter 2.5.2.
Water vapour - Chapter 2.5.3.
Cloud amounts - Chapter 2.5.5.

B.3 Observed Changes in Snow Cover and Land- and Sea-Ice Extent
Snow cover and land-ice extent - Chapter 2.2.5.
Sea-ice extent - Chapter 2.2.5.
Arctic sea-ice thickness - Chapter 2.2.5.

B.4 Observed Changes in Sea Level Changes During the Instrumental Record
Tide gauge data for the 20th century - Chapter 11.3.2.
Box 2: What causes sea level to change? - Chapter 11.2.
Changes during the pre-instrumental record - Chapter 11.3.1.

B.5 Observed Changes in Atmospheric and Oceanic Circulation Patterns
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) - Chapter 2.6.2 and 2.6.3.
North Atlantic, Arctic, and Antarctic oscillations - Chapter 2.6.5 and 2.6.6.

B.6 Observed Changes in Climate Variability and Extreme Weather and Climate Events
Heavy and extreme precipitation - Chapter 2.7.2.
Tropical and extra-tropical storms - Chapter 2.7.3.

B.7 The Collective Picture: A Warming World and Other Changes in the Climate System
A warming world - Chapter 2.8.
Little or no change - Chapter 2.2.5 and 2.7.3.

Section C: The Forcing Agents That Cause Climate Change

Technical Summary Section and Topic – Chapter Section

C.1 Observed Changes in Globally Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gas Concentrations and Radiative Forcing.
Carbon dioxide - Chapter 3.2.2, 3.2.3, 3.3.1, 3.3.2, and 3.5, Chapter 6.13
Methane - Chapter 4.2.1, Chapter 6.13.
Nitrous Oxide - Chapter 4.2, Chapter 6.13.
Halocarbons and Related Compounds - Chapter 4.2.2, Chapter 6.13.

C.2 Observed Changes in Other Radiatively Important Gases
Atmospheric ozone - Chapter 4.2.2 and 4.2.4, Chapter 6.13.
Gases with only indirect radiative influence - Chapter 4.2.3, Chapter 6.13

C.3 Observed and Modelled Changes in Aerosols
Observed and modelled changes in aerosols - Chapter 5.1, 5.2, 5.3 and 5.4, Chapter 6.7 and 6.8.

C.4 Observed Changes in Other Anthropogenic Forcing Agents
Land-use (albedo) change - Chapter 6.13.

C.5 Observed and Modelled Changes in Solar Activity
Observed and modelled changes in solar activity - Chapter 6.10.

C.6 Global Warming Potentials
Global warming potentials - Chapter 6.12

Section D: The Simulation of the Climate System and Its Changes

Technical Summary Section and Topic – Chapter Section

D.1 Climate Processes and Feedbacks
Box 3: Climate Models: How are they built and how are they applied? - Chapter 8.3.
Water vapour - Chapter 7.2.1.
Clouds - Chapter 7.2.2 and 7.2.3, Chapter 8.5.1.
Stratosphere - Chapter 7.2.4 and 7.2.5, Chapter 8.5.1.
Ocean - Chapter 7.3, Chapter 8.5.2.
Cryosphere - Chapter 7.5, Chapter 8.5.3.
Land surface - Chapter 7.4, Chapter 8.5.4.
Carbon cycle - Chapter 3.6.

D.2 The Coupled Systems
Modes of natural variability - Chapter 7.6, Chapter 8.7.
Box 4: The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) - Chapter 7.6.5, Chapter 8.7.1
The thermohaline circulation - Chapter 7.3.7 and 7.7, Chapter 9.3.4.
Non-linear events and rapid climate change - Chapter 7.7.

D.3 Regionalisation Techniques
Categories of techniques - Chapter 10.1, 10.2, Chapter 13.
Coarse resolution AOGCMs - Chapter 10.3, Chapter 13.
High resolution RCMs - Chapter 10.5, Chapter 13.

D.4 Overall Assessment of Abilities
Flux adjustment - Chapter 7.2, 7.3 and 7.6, Chapter 8.4 and 8.9.
Climate of the 20th century - Chapter 8.6.
Extreme events - Chapter 8.8.
Interannual variability - Chapter 8.7.
Model intercomparisons - Chapter 8.6.2 and 8.10.

Section E: The Identification of a Human Influence on Climate Change

Technical Summary Section and Topic – Chapter Section

E.1 The Meaning of Detection and Attribution
Detection/Attribution - Chapter 12.1.1 and 12.2.

E.2 A Longer and More Closely Scrutinised Observational Record
Three of last five years - Chapter 12.2.1.

E.3 New Model Estimates of Internal Variability
The warming over the past 100 years - Chapter 12.2.2.

E.4 New Estimates of Responses to Natural Forcing
Natural forcing alone - Chapter 12.2.3.

E.5 Sensitivity to Estimates of Climate Changes Signals
Responses to anthropogenic forcing - Chapter 12.2.3.
Significant anthropogenic forcing contribution - Chapter 12.2.3.

E.6 A Wider Range of Detection Techniques
Temperature - Chapter 12.3 and 12.4.
Sea level - Chapter 11.4.

E.7 Remaining Uncertainties in Detection and Attribution
Summary - Chapter 12.5.

E.8 Synopsis
Most of the observed warming over the past 50 years - Chapter 12.6.

Section F: The Projections of the Earth's Future Climate

Technical Summary Section and Topic – Chapter Section

F.1 The IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
SRES scenarios - Chapter 6.15.2, SRES Report.
Box 5: The Emission Scenarios of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) - Chapter 6.15.2,
SRES Report, Appendix II.

F.2 Projections of Future Changes in Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols
CO₂ concentration trajectories - Chapter 3.3 and 3.7, Appendix II.
Carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems - Chapter 3.2 and 3.6.
Abundance of the non-CO₂ greenhouse gases - Chapter 4.3, Chapter 6.15, Appendix II.
Emissions of indirect greenhouse gases and atmospheric chemistry - Chapter 4.4.4 and 4.4.5, Chapter 6.15.
Emissions of indirect greenhouse gases and air quality - Chapter 4.4.5
Dependence of the abundance of aerosols on emissions - Chapter 5.5, Chapter 6.15, Appendix II.
Projected aerosol emissions and the SRES scenarios - Chapter 5.5
Radiative forcing - Chapter 6.15, Appendix II.

F.3 Projections of Future Changes in Temperature
AOGCM Results - Chapter 9.3
Simple Climate Model Results - Chapter 9.3

F.4 Projections of Future Changes in Precipitation
Globally averaged precipitation and variability - Chapter 9.3.

F.5 Projections of Future Changes in Extreme Events
Changes in extreme events - Chapter 9.3.6.

F.6 Projections of Future Changes in Thermohaline Circulation
Weakening of Thermohaline Circulation - Chapter 9.3.4.

F.7 Projections of Future Changes in Modes of Natural Variability
Changes in modes of natural variability - Chapter 9.3.5.

F.8 Projections of Future Changes in Land Ice (Glaciers, Ice Caps and Ice Sheets), Sea Ice and Snow Cover
Glaciers, ice caps, and ice sheets - Chapter 11.5.4.

F.9 Projections of Future Changes in Sea Level
Global average sea level change - Chapter 11.5.1.
Regional sea level change - Chapter 11.5.2.
Extremes of sea level - Chapter 11.5.3.

F.10 Projections of Future Changes in Response to CO₂ Concentration Stabilisation Profiles
Greenhouse gases and aerosols - Chapter 3.7.3.
Temperature - Chapter 9.3.3.
Sea level - Chapter 11.5.4.

Section G: Advancing Understanding