Climate Change 2001:
Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
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17. Small Island States

Contents

Executive Summary

17.1. Regional Characteristics

17.1.1. Review of Previous Work
17.1.2. Special Circumstances of Small Islands
17.1.3. Past and Present Trends
17.1.4. Scenarios of Future Climate Change and Variability

17.1.4.1. Models Used
17.1.4.2. Region-Specific Model Validation
17.1.4.3. Climate Change Projections for Small Island States

17.1.4.3.1. Surface air temperature
17.1.4.3.2. Precipitation
17.1.4.3.3. Extreme high temperature and precipitation events
17.1.4.3.4. ENSO and precipitation variability
17.1.4.3.5. Tropical cyclones

17.2. Key Regional Concerns

17.2.1. Development, Sustainability, and Equity Issues
17.2.2. Water-Level Rise

17.2.2.1. Sea-Level Rise
17.2.2.2. Storm Surge and Flood Risks

17.2.3. Beach and Coastal Changes

17.2.3.1. Response, Adaptation, and Management

17.2.4. Coral Reefs, Mangroves, and Seagrasses

17.2.4.1. Coral Reefs
17.2.4.2. Mangroves
17.2.4.3. Seagrasses

17.2.5. Biodiversity of Islands
17.2.6. Water Resources
17.2.7. Tourism
17.2.8. Food Security

17.2.8.1. Crop Agriculture
17.2.8.2. Fisheries

17.2.9. Human Welfare

17.2.9.1. Settlement and Infrastructure
17.2.9.2. Human Health

17.2.10. Other Economic and Sociocultural Impacts

17.3 Vulnerability and Adaptation Potential

17.3.1. Setting the Context
17.3.2 Generic Issues
17.3.3. Vulnerability
17.3.4. Adaptation and Adaptive Capacity
17.3.5. Regional and External Factors

17.4. Synthesis

17.4.1. Feedbacks, Interactions, and Resilience: Relevance of these Concepts to Small Islands
17.4.2. Uncertainties and Risks

17.4.2.1. Inconsistencies and Limitations in Projected Changes
17.4.2.2. Ecosystem Collapse

17.5. Future Requirements, Information, and Research Needs

References

LEONARD A. NURSE (BARBADOS) AND GRAHAM SEM (PAPUA NEW GUINEA)

Lead Authors:
J.E. Hay (New Zealand), A.G. Suarez (Cuba), Poh Poh Wong (Singapore), L. Briguglio (Malta), S. Ragoonaden (Mauritius)

Contributing Authors:
A. Githeko (Kenya), J. Gregory (UK), V. Ittekkot (Germany), U. Kaly (Australia), R. Klein (Germany/The Netherlands), M. Lal (India), A. McKenzie (Jamaica), H. McLeod (UK), N. Mimura (Japan), J. Price (USA), Dahe Qin (China), B. Singh (Trinidad and Tobago), P. Weech (The Bahamas)

Review Editors:
R. Payet (Seychelles) and S. Saeed (Maldives)



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