Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Tourism is a major economic sector in many small island states. Table 17-5, which expresses tourist arrivals in terms of the populations of small island states for which data were available, shows that in most small island states, the numbers of visitors substantially exceed the number of inhabitants. Table 17-5 also expresses tourism receipts in terms of gross national product (GNP) and in terms of foreign exchange inflows from exports of goods and services. Again, the ratios tend to be relatively high in most small island states; the Maldives, Antigua and Barbuda, and the Bahamas exhibit the highest ratios. In many countries, tourism also makes a significant contribution to employment. For example, the industry provides jobs for 70% of the labor force in the Bahamas, 40% in Malta, and 20% in Seychelles (Waters, 1998).

*Table 17-5:* Tourist inflows and receipts, various years, for select small island states (Waters, 1998).

	Number of Tourists (000s)^a	Tourists as % of Population^a	Tourist Receipts^b
Country	Number of Tourists (000s)^a	Tourists as % of Population^a	as % of GNP	as % of Exports

Antigua and Barbuda	232	364.2	63.4	73.5
Bahamas	1618	586.4	42.0	75.6
Barbados	472	182.4	39.2	56.2
Cape Verde	45	11.4	11.5	37.3
Comoros	26	4.9	10.6	47.8
Cuba	1153	10.5	8.8	n/a
Cyprus	2088	280.7	24.0	49.1
Dominica	65	97.6	15.9	32.5
Dominican Republic	2211	28.1	13.6	30.2
Fiji	359	45.3	19.2	29.1
Grenada	111	116.2	27.0	60.6
Haiti	149	2.2	3.9	50.5
Jamaica	1192	45.6	31.6	39.8
Maldives	366	130.7	95.0	68.4
Malta	1111	294.7	22.9	28.7
Mauritius	536	46.4	15.7	26.8
Papua New Guinea	66	1.5	2.1	3.0
St. Kitts and Nevis	88	210.5	30.6	63.6
St. Lucia	248	164.7	41.1	66.6
St. Vincent	65	54.6	23.8	45.9
Samoa	68	31.1	19.6	48.8
Seychelles	130	166.7	34.6	52.2
Singapore	7198	209.2	6.2	4.1
Solomon Islands	16	3.72	2.8	4.2
Trinidad and Tobago	324	28.7	4.2	8.3
Vanuatu	49	27.1	19.3	40.9

^a Data on tourist inflows and ratio to population pertain to 1997. ^b Data for tourist receipts pertain to 1997 for the Bahamas, Cape Verde, Jamaica, the Maldives, Malta, Mauritius, Samoa, Seychelles, Singapore, and Solomon Islands; to 1996 for Antigua and Barbuda, Cuba, Dominica, Dominican Republic, Fiji, Grenada, Haiti, Papua New Guinea, St. Lucia, and St. Vincent; to 1995 for Barbados, Comoros, Cyprus, Trinidad and Tobago, and Vanuatu; and to 1994 for St. Kitts and Nevis.

It is widely acknowledged that the effects of climate change on tourism will be both direct and indirect. For instance, sea-level rise would disrupt the sector through loss of beaches, inundation, degradation of coastal ecosystems, saline intrusion, and damage to critical infrastructure (Nicholls and Hoozemans, 1996; Teh, 1997; Perez et al., 1999). Because many small islands are so heavily dependent on the tourism sector for their economic survival, adverse impacts on the industry, from climate change or other causes, would be of great concern in these countries. In many small islands, the industry also would be sensitive to other climate-related impacts, such as loss of attractiveness of coral reefs as a result of bleaching.

A high proportion of tourism in small island states is motivated by the desire of visitors from developed countries of the north (their largest market) to escape cold winters. Small island states are becoming increasingly concerned that projected milder winters in these markets could reduce the appeal of these islands as tourist destinations (Martin and Bruce, 1999). It is projected that tourism could be further harmed by increased airline fares if GHG mitigation measures (e.g., levies and emission charges) were to result in higher costs to airlines servicing routes between the main markets and small island states (Wall, 1996).

To ensure the sustainability of the tourist industry in Cyprus, it has been recommended that a strategy of protection of infrastructure combined with planned retreat would be effective and appropriate to local circumstances. The overall goal would be to maintain the limited beach area to sustain the vital tourist industry, specifically by erecting hard structures, enforcing building set-backs, and use of artificial nourishment, although the latter measure may require external sources of sand (Nicholls and Hoozemans, 1996). Although not all these strategies may be applicable to the atoll states, many other island nations—such as Barbados, Jamaica, Grenada, St. Lucia, and Singapore—already have begun to implement similar approaches as part of the ICM process.

17.2.7 Tourism