3.1. Definitions and Role of Scenarios
3.1.1. Introduction
3.1.2. Function of Scenarios in Impact and Adaptation Assessment
3.1.3. Approaches to Scenario Development and Application3.1.3.1. Exploratory Scenarios3.1.4. What Changes are Being Considered?
3.1.3.2. Normative Scenarios
3.2.1. Purpose
3.2.2. Representing Baseline Conditions
3.2.3. Constructing Socioeconomic Scenarios3.2.3.1. Basic Drivers3.2.4. Use of Socioeconomic Scenarios
3.2.3.2. Underlying Socioeconomic Drivers
3.2.3.3. Technological Change
3.2.3.4. Time Horizons
3.2.3.5. Spatial Resolution
3.2.3.6. Sectoral Scenarios
3.2.4.1. IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios
3.2.4.2. UNEP Pakistan Country Study
3.2.4.3. UKCIP "Nonclimate Scenarios" for Climate Impact Assessment
3.2.4.4. ACACIA Scenarios for Europe
3.2.4.5. U.S. National Assessment
3.3. Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Scenarios
3.3.1. Purpose
3.3.2. Methods of Scenario Development3.3.2.1. Baseline Data3.3.3. Types of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Scenarios
3.3.2.2. Regional and Sector-Specific Approaches
3.3.2.3. Integrated Assessment Models
3.3.3.1. Driving Forces of Change3.3.4. Application and Interpretation of Scenarios and their Uncertainties
3.3.3.2. Processes of LUC-LCC
3.3.3.3. Adaptation
3.4.1. Purpose
3.4.2. CO2 Scenarios3.4.2.1. Reference Conditions3.4.3. Scenarios of Acidifying Compounds
3.4.2.2. Development and Application of [CO2] Scenarios
3.4.3.1. Reference Conditions3.4.4. Scenarios of Tropospheric Ozone
3.4.3.2. Development and Application of Sulfur and Nitrogen Scenarios
3.4.4.1. Reference Conditions3.4.5. UV-B Radiation Scenarios
3.4.4.2. Development and Application of Tropospheric Ozone Scenarios
3.4.5.1. Reference Conditions3.4.6. Water Resource Scenarios
3.4.5.2. Development and Application of UV-B Scenarios
3.4.6.1. Reference Conditions3.4.7. Scenarios of Marine Pollution
3.4.6.2. Development and Application of Water Resource Scenarios
3.4.7.1. Reference Conditions
3.4.7.2. Development and Application of Marine Pollution Scenarios
3.5.2.1. Incremental Scenarios for Sensitivity Studies3.5.3. Baseline Climatologies
3.5.2.2. Analog Approaches
3.5.2.3. Use of Climate Model Outputs
3.5.3.1. Baseline Period3.5.4. Construction of Scenarios
3.5.3.2. Sources and Characteristics of Data
3.5.4.1. Choosing Variables of Interest3.5.5. Uncertainties of Climate Scenarios
3.5.4.2. Selecting GCM Outputs
3.5.4.3. Constructing Change Fields
3.5.4.4. Spatial Scale of Scenarios
3.5.4.4.1. Simple methods3.5.4.5. Temporal Resolution (Mean versus Variability)
3.5.4.4.2. Regional climate modeling
3.5.4.4.3. Statistical methods
3.5.4.6. Incorporation of Extremes in Scenarios
3.5.4.7. Surprises: Low-Probability, High-Impact Events
3.6.1. Purpose
3.6.2. Baseline Conditions
3.6.3. Global Average Sea-Level Rise
3.6.4. Regional Sea-Level Rise
3.6.5. Scenarios Incorporating Variability
3.6.6. Application of Scenarios3.6.6.1. Simple Scenarios
3.6.6.2. Projected Ranges
3.6.6.3. Risk and Integrated Assessment
3.7. Representing Interactions in Scenarios and Ensuring Consistency
3.7.1. Introduction
3.7.2. Representing Processes and Interactions in Scenarios3.7.2.1. Generally Considered Interactions3.7.3. Tools Capable of Addressing Interactions
3.7.2.2. Less Considered Interactions
3.7.2.3. Rarely Considered Interactions
3.7.4. Problems of Compatibility between Scenarios
3.8. Scenarios of the 21st Century
3.8.1. SRES Storylines and Emissions Scenarios
3.8.2. Implications of SRES Scenarios for Atmospheric Composition and Global Climate
3.8.3. Implications of SRES Scenarios for Regional Mean Climate3.8.3.1. Regional Information from AOGCMs3.8.4. Stabilization Scenarios
3.8.3.2. Regional Climate Characterizations
3.8.5. Scenarios of Changes in Climate Variability and Extreme Events
3.9. State of the Science and Future Needs for Scenario Development
3.9.1. Well-Developed Features
3.9.2. Deficiencies in Knowledge and Future Needs
Timothy R. Carter (Finland) and Emilio L. La Rovere (Brazil)
Lead Authors:
R.N. Jones (Australia), R. Leemans (The Netherlands), L.O. Mearns (USA), N.
Nakicenovic (Austria), A.B. Pittock (Australia), S.M. Semenov (Russian Federation),
J. Skea (UK)
Contributing Authors:
S. Gromov (Russian Federation), A.J. Jordan (UK), S.R. Khan (Pakistan), A. Koukhta
(Russian Federation), I. Lorenzoni (UK), M. Posch (The Netherlands), A.V. Tsyban
(Russian Federation), A. Velichko (Russian Federation), N. Zeng (USA)
Review Editors:
Shreekant Gupta (India) and M. Hulme (UK)
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