ISAM model (reference) - CO2 abundances (ppm) | ||||||||||||
Year | A1B | A1T | A1FI | A2 | B1 | B2 | A1p | A2p | B1p | B2p | IS92a | IS92a/SAR |
1970 | 325 | 325 | 325 | 325 | 325 | 325 | 325 | 325 | 325 | 325 | 325 | 326 |
1980 | 337 | 337 | 337 | 337 | 337 | 337 | 337 | 337 | 337 | 337 | 337 | 338 |
1990 | 353 | 353 | 353 | 353 | 353 | 353 | 353 | 353 | 353 | 353 | 353 | 354 |
2000 | 369 | 369 | 369 | 369 | 369 | 369 | 369 | 369 | 369 | 369 | 369 | 372 |
2010 | 391 | 389 | 389 | 390 | 388 | 388 | 393 | 391 | 388 | 390 | 390 | 393 |
2020 | 420 | 412 | 417 | 417 | 412 | 408 | 425 | 419 | 409 | 414 | 415 | 418 |
2030 | 454 | 440 | 455 | 451 | 437 | 429 | 461 | 453 | 429 | 438 | 444 | 446 |
2040 | 491 | 471 | 504 | 490 | 463 | 453 | 499 | 492 | 450 | 462 | 475 | 476 |
2050 | 532 | 501 | 567 | 532 | 488 | 478 | 538 | 535 | 472 | 486 | 508 | 509 |
2060 | 572 | 528 | 638 | 580 | 509 | 504 | 577 | 583 | 497 | 512 | 543 | 544 |
2070 | 611 | 550 | 716 | 635 | 525 | 531 | 615 | 637 | 522 | 539 | 582 | 580 |
2080 | 649 | 567 | 799 | 698 | 537 | 559 | 652 | 699 | 544 | 567 | 623 | 620 |
2090 | 685 | 577 | 885 | 771 | 545 | 589 | 685 | 771 | 563 | 597 | 670 | 664 |
2100 | 717 | 582 | 970 | 856 | 549 | 621 | 715 | 856 | 578 | 630 | 723 | 715 |
Note: Emissions for OC are scaled to SRES anthropogenic CO emissions offset to year 2000. |
ISAM model (low) - CO2 abundances (ppm) | |||||||||||
Year | A1B | A1T | A1FI | A2 | B1 | B2 | A1p | A2p | B1p | B2p | IS92a |
2000 | 368 | 368 | 368 | 368 | 368 | 368 | 368 | 368 | 368 | 368 | 368 |
2010 | 383 | 381 | 381 | 382 | 380 | 380 | 385 | 383 | 380 | 382 | 382 |
2020 | 405 | 398 | 403 | 402 | 398 | 394 | 409 | 404 | 395 | 400 | 401 |
2030 | 432 | 419 | 433 | 429 | 416 | 410 | 438 | 431 | 410 | 417 | 423 |
2040 | 461 | 443 | 473 | 460 | 436 | 427 | 467 | 461 | 425 | 435 | 446 |
2050 | 493 | 466 | 525 | 493 | 455 | 446 | 498 | 495 | 442 | 454 | 472 |
2060 | 524 | 486 | 584 | 532 | 470 | 466 | 528 | 534 | 460 | 473 | 499 |
2070 | 554 | 501 | 647 | 576 | 480 | 486 | 557 | 577 | 479 | 492 | 529 |
2080 | 582 | 511 | 715 | 626 | 486 | 507 | 583 | 627 | 495 | 513 | 561 |
2090 | 607 | 516 | 783 | 686 | 490 | 530 | 607 | 686 | 507 | 536 | 598 |
2100 | 630 | 516 | 851 | 755 | 490 | 554 | 627 | 755 | 517 | 561 | 640 |
ISAM model (high) - CO2 abundances (ppm) | |||||||||||
Year | A1B | A1T | A1FI | A2 | B1 | B2 | A1p | A2p | B1p | B2p | IS92a |
2000 | 369 | 369 | 369 | 369 | 369 | 369 | 369 | 369 | 369 | 369 | 369 |
2010 | 397 | 394 | 394 | 395 | 394 | 393 | 398 | 396 | 393 | 396 | 396 |
2020 | 431 | 422 | 427 | 427 | 422 | 417 | 435 | 429 | 418 | 424 | 426 |
2030 | 470 | 455 | 471 | 466 | 452 | 443 | 477 | 469 | 444 | 453 | 460 |
2040 | 513 | 491 | 527 | 511 | 483 | 472 | 521 | 514 | 469 | 482 | 498 |
2050 | 560 | 527 | 597 | 561 | 514 | 502 | 568 | 564 | 496 | 512 | 539 |
2060 | 609 | 560 | 678 | 617 | 541 | 534 | 615 | 620 | 527 | 543 | 583 |
2070 | 656 | 590 | 767 | 681 | 563 | 567 | 661 | 682 | 558 | 577 | 631 |
2080 | 703 | 613 | 863 | 754 | 581 | 602 | 706 | 755 | 586 | 612 | 682 |
2090 | 748 | 631 | 962 | 838 | 594 | 640 | 749 | 838 | 611 | 650 | 739 |
2100 | 790 | 642 | 1062 | 936 | 603 | 680 | 789 | 936 | 634 | 691 | 804 |
Note: A “reference” case was defined with
climate sensitivity 2.5°C, ocean uptake corresponding to the mean of
the ocean model results in Chapter 3, Figure
3.10, and terrestrial uptake corresponding to the mean of the responses
of mid-range models, LPJ, IBIS and SDGM (Chapter 3,
Figure 3.10). A “low CO2”
parametrization was chosen with climate sensitivity 1.5°C and maximal
CO2 uptake by oceans and land. A “high CO2”
parametrization was defined with climate sensitivity 4.5°C and minimal
CO2 uptake by oceans and land. See Chapter
3, Box 3.7, and Jain et al. (1994) for more
details on the ISAM model. The IS92a column values are calculated using the ISAM parametrization noted above with IS92a emissions starting in the year 2000; whereas the IS92a/SAR column refers to values as reported in the SAR using IS92a emissions starting in 1990, using the SAR parametrization of ISAM. |
Bern-CC model (reference) - CO2 abundances (ppm) | ||||||||||||
Year | A1B | A1T | A1FI | A2 | B1 | B2 | A1p | A2p | B1p | B2p | IS92a | IS92a/SAR |
1970 | 325 | 325 | 325 | 325 | 325 | 325 | 325 | 325 | 325 | 325 | 325 | 325 |
1980 | 337 | 337 | 337 | 337 | 337 | 337 | 337 | 337 | 337 | 337 | 337 | 337 |
1990 | 352 | 352 | 352 | 352 | 352 | 352 | 352 | 352 | 352 | 352 | 352 | 353 |
2000 | 367 | 367 | 367 | 367 | 367 | 367 | 367 | 367 | 367 | 367 | 367 | 370 |
2010 | 388 | 386 | 386 | 386 | 386 | 385 | 390 | 388 | 385 | 387 | 387 | 391 |
2020 | 418 | 410 | 415 | 414 | 410 | 406 | 421 | 416 | 407 | 412 | 413 | 416 |
2030 | 447 | 435 | 449 | 444 | 432 | 425 | 454 | 447 | 425 | 433 | 439 | 444 |
2040 | 483 | 466 | 495 | 481 | 457 | 448 | 490 | 484 | 445 | 457 | 468 | 475 |
2050 | 522 | 496 | 555 | 522 | 482 | 473 | 529 | 525 | 467 | 481 | 499 | 507 |
2060 | 563 | 523 | 625 | 568 | 503 | 499 | 569 | 571 | 492 | 506 | 533 | 541 |
2070 | 601 | 545 | 702 | 620 | 518 | 524 | 606 | 622 | 515 | 532 | 568 | 577 |
2080 | 639 | 563 | 786 | 682 | 530 | 552 | 642 | 683 | 537 | 559 | 607 | 616 |
2090 | 674 | 572 | 872 | 754 | 538 | 581 | 674 | 754 | 555 | 588 | 653 | 660 |
2100 | 703 | 575 | 958 | 836 | 540 | 611 | 702 | 836 | 569 | 618 | 703 | 709 |
Bern-CC model (low) - CO2 abundances (ppm) | |||||||||||
Year | A1B | A1T | A1FI | A2 | B1 | B2 | A1p | A2p | B1p | B2p | IS92a |
2000 | 367 | 367 | 367 | 367 | 367 | 367 | 367 | 367 | 367 | 367 | 367 |
2010 | 383 | 381 | 381 | 381 | 381 | 380 | 384 | 383 | 380 | 382 | 383 |
2020 | 407 | 400 | 405 | 404 | 400 | 396 | 411 | 406 | 397 | 402 | 403 |
2030 | 432 | 419 | 432 | 428 | 417 | 410 | 437 | 431 | 410 | 417 | 424 |
2040 | 460 | 442 | 472 | 459 | 436 | 427 | 466 | 461 | 425 | 434 | 448 |
2050 | 491 | 464 | 521 | 492 | 455 | 445 | 496 | 495 | 440 | 452 | 473 |
2060 | 522 | 483 | 577 | 529 | 470 | 464 | 524 | 531 | 458 | 470 | 500 |
2070 | 548 | 496 | 636 | 569 | 479 | 482 | 550 | 569 | 475 | 487 | 527 |
2080 | 575 | 505 | 700 | 617 | 485 | 502 | 575 | 616 | 490 | 507 | 559 |
2090 | 598 | 508 | 763 | 671 | 487 | 522 | 596 | 670 | 501 | 528 | 593 |
2100 | 617 | 506 | 824 | 735 | 486 | 544 | 613 | 734 | 509 | 550 | 632 |
Bern-CC model (high) - CO2 abundances (ppm) | |||||||||||
Year | A1B | A1T | A1FI | A2 | B1 | B2 | A1p | A2p | B1p | B2p | IS92a |
2000 | 367 | 367 | 367 | 367 | 367 | 367 | 367 | 367 | 367 | 367 | 367 |
2010 | 395 | 393 | 393 | 393 | 392 | 392 | 397 | 395 | 392 | 394 | 395 |
2020 | 436 | 427 | 433 | 431 | 426 | 422 | 441 | 434 | 424 | 430 | 431 |
2030 | 483 | 467 | 484 | 477 | 463 | 454 | 491 | 482 | 455 | 465 | 471 |
2040 | 538 | 514 | 552 | 533 | 503 | 491 | 548 | 538 | 488 | 504 | 517 |
2050 | 599 | 562 | 638 | 597 | 544 | 531 | 609 | 602 | 524 | 544 | 568 |
2060 | 666 | 610 | 743 | 670 | 584 | 575 | 675 | 675 | 566 | 588 | 624 |
2070 | 732 | 653 | 859 | 753 | 617 | 620 | 738 | 757 | 608 | 632 | 684 |
2080 | 797 | 689 | 985 | 848 | 645 | 668 | 802 | 851 | 648 | 680 | 750 |
2090 | 860 | 717 | 1118 | 957 | 666 | 718 | 863 | 959 | 682 | 730 | 822 |
2100 | 918 | 735 | 1248 | 1080 | 681 | 769 | 918 | 1082 | 713 | 782 | 902 |
Note: A "reference" case was defined with an average ocean
uptake for the 1980s of 2.0 PgC/yr. A "low CO2" parameterisation
was obtained by combining a "fast ocean" (ocean uptake of 2.54 PgC/yr
for the 1980s) and no response of heterotrophic respiration to temperature.
A "high CO2" parameterisation was obtained by combining a "slow
ocean " (ocean uptake of 1.46 PgC/yr for the 1980s) and capping CO2
fertilisation. Climate sensitivity was set to 2.5°C for a doubling
of CO2. See Chapter 3, Box
3.7 for more details on the Bern-CC model.
The IS92a/SAR column refers to values as reported in the
SAR using IS92a emissions; whereas the IS92a column is calculated using
IS92a emissions but with year 2000 starting values and the BERN-CC model
as described in Chapter 3.
The Bern-CC model was initialised for observed atmospheric
CO2 which was prescribed for the period 1765 to 1999. The CO2
data were smoothed by a spline. Scenario calculations started at the begining
of the year 2000. This explains the difference in the values given for
the years upto 2000. Values shown are for the beginning of each year.
Annual-mean values are generally higher (up to 7ppm) depending on the
scenario and the year.
|
Other reports in this collection |