The collection of coupled climate model results that is available for this report permits a multi-model ensemble approach to the synthesis of projected climate change. Multi-model ensemble approaches are already used in short-range climate forecasting (e.g., Graham et al., 1999; Krishnamurti et al., 1999; Brankovic and Palmer, 2000; Doblas-Reyes et al., 2000; Derome et al., 2001). When applied to climate change, each model in the ensemble produces a somewhat different projection and, if these represent plausible solutions to the governing equations, they may be considered as different realisations of the climate change drawn from the set of models in active use and produced with current climate knowledge. In this case, temperature is represented as T = T0 + TF + Tm + T' where TF is the deterministic forced climate change for the real system and Tm= Tf -TF is the error in the model’s simulation of this forced response. T' now also includes errors in the statistical behaviour of the simulated natural variability. The multi-model ensemble mean estimate of forced climate change is {T} = TF + {Tm} + {T''} where the natural variability again averages to zero for a large enough ensemble. To the extent that unrelated model errors tend to average out, the ensemble mean or systematic error {Tm} will be small, {T} will approach TF and the multi-model ensemble average will be a better estimate of the forced climate change of the real system than the result from a particular model.
As noted in Chapter 8, no one model can be chosen as “best” and it is important to use results from a range of models. Lambert and Boer (2001) show that for the CMIP1 ensemble of simulations of current climate, the multi-model ensemble means of temperature, pressure, and precipitation are generally closer to the observed distributions, as measured by mean squared differences, correlations, and variance ratios, than are the results of any particular model. The multi-model ensemble mean represents those features of projected climate change that survive ensemble averaging and so are common to models as a group. The multi-model ensemble variance, assuming no correlation between the forced and variability components, is 2T = 2M + 2N, where 2M = {(Tm - {Tm})2} measures the inter-model scatter of the forced component and 2N the natural variability. The common signal is again best discerned where the signal to noise ratio {T} / T is largest.
Figure 9.3 illustrates some basic aspects of the multi-model ensemble approach for global mean temperature and precipitation. Each model result is the sum of a smooth forced signal, Tf, and the accompanying natural variability noise. The natural variability is different for each model and tends to average out so that the ensemble mean estimates the smooth forced signal. The scatter of results about the ensemble mean (measured by the ensemble variance) is an indication of uncertainty in the results and is seen to increase with time. Global mean temperature is seen to be a more robust climate change variable than precipitation in the sense that {T} / T is larger than {P} / P. These results are discussed further in Section 9.3.2.
Table 9.1: The climate change experiments assessed in this report. | ||||||||||
Model Number (see Chapter 8, Table 8.1) | Model Name and centre in italics (see Chapter 8, Table 8.1) | Scenario name | Scenario description | Number of simulations | Length of simulation or starting and final year | Transient Climate Response (TCR) (Section 9.2.1) | Equilibrium climate sensitivity (Section 9.2.1) (in bold used in Figure. 9.18 / Table 9.4) | Effective climate sensitivity (Section 9.2.1) (from CMIP2 yrs 61-80) in bold used in Table A1 | References | Remarks |
2 | ARPEGE/OPA2 CERFACS |
CMIP2 | 1% CO2 | 1 | 80 | 1.64 | Barthelet et al., 1998a | |||
3 | BMRCa BMRC |
ML | Equilibrium 2xCO2 in mixed-layer experiment | 2 | 60 | 2.2 | Colman and McAvaney, 1995; Colman, 2001 | |||
CMIP2 | 1% CO2 | 1 | 100 | 1.63 | ||||||
5 | CCSR/NIES CCSR/NIES |
ML | Equilibrium 2xCO2 in mixed-layer experiment | 1 | 40 | 3.6 | Emori et al., 1999 | |||
CMIP2 | 1% CO2 | 1 | 80 | 1.8 | ||||||
G | Historical equivalent CO2 to 1990 then 1% CO2 (approx. IS92a) | 1 | 1890-2099 | |||||||
GS | As G but including direct effect of sulphate aerosols | 1 | 1890-2099 | |||||||
GS2 | 1% CO2 +direct effect of sulphate aerosols but with explicit representation | 1 | 1890-2099 | |||||||
31 | CCSR/NIES2 CCSR/NIES |
ML | Equilibrium 2xCO2 in mixed-layer experiment | 1 | 40 | 5.1 | Nozawa et al., 2001 | |||
CMIP2 | 1% CO2 | 1 | 80 | 3.1 | 11.6 | |||||
A1 | SRES A1 scenario | 1 | 1890-2100 | |||||||
A2 | SRES A2 scenario | 1 | 1890-2100 | |||||||
B1 | SRES B1 scenario | 1 | 1890-2100 | |||||||
B2 | SRES B2 scenario | 1 | 1890-2100 | |||||||
6 | CGCM1 CCCma |
ML | Equilibrium 2xCO2 in mixed-layer experiment | 1 | 30 | 3.5 | Boer et al., 1992 | |||
CMIP2 | 1% CO2 | 1 | 80 | 1.96 | 3.6 | Boer et al., 2000a,b | 1,000 yr control | |||
G | Historical equivalent CO2 to 1990 then 1% CO2 (approx. IS92a) | 1 | 1900-2100 | |||||||
GS | As G but including direct effect of sulphate aerosols | 3 | 1900-2100 | |||||||
GS2050 | As GS but all forcings stabilised in year 2050 | 1 | 1000 after stability | |||||||
GS2100 | As GS but all forcings stabilised in year 2100 | 1 | 1000 after stability | |||||||
7 | CGCM2 CCCma |
GS | Historical equivalent CO2 to 1990 then 1% CO2 (approx. IS92a) and direct effect of sulphate aerosols | 3 | 1900-2100 | Flato and Boer, 2001 | 1,000 yr control | |||
A2 | SRES A2 scenario | 3 | 1990-2100 | |||||||
B2 | SRES B2 scenario | 3 | 1990-2100 | |||||||
10 | CSIRO Mk2 CSIRO |
ML | Equilibrium 2xCO2 in mixed-layer experiment | 1 | 60 | 4.3 | Watterson et al., 1998 | |||
CMIP2 | 1% CO2 | 1 | 80 | 2.00 | 3.7 | Gordon and O'Farrell, 1997 | ||||
G | Historical equivalent CO2 to 1990 then 1% CO2 (approx. IS92a) | 1 | 1881-2100 | |||||||
G2080 | As G but forcing stabilised at 2080 (3x initial CO2) | 1 | 700 after stability | Hirst, 1999 | ||||||
GS | As G +direct effect of sulphate aerosols | 1 | 1881-2100 | Gordon and O'Farrell, 1997 | ||||||
A2 | SRES A2 scenario | 1 | 1990-2100 | |||||||
B2 | SRES B2 scenario | 1 | 1990-2100 | |||||||
11 | CSM 1.0 NCAR |
ML | Equilibrium 2xCO2 in mixed-layer experiment | 1 | 50 | 2.1 | Meehl et al., 2000a | |||
CMIP2 | 1% CO2 | 1 | 80 | 1.43 | 1.9 | |||||
12 | CSM 1.3a NCAR |
GS | Historical GHGs +direct effect of sulph- CO2 + direct effect of sulphate aerosols includ- ing effects of pollution control policies ate aerosols to 1990 then BAU | 1 | 1870-2100 | Boville et al., 2001; Dai et al., 2001 | ||||
GS2150 | Historical GHGs +direct effect of except WRE550 scenario for CO2 until it reaches 550 ppm in 2150 sulphate to aerosols to 1990 then as GS | 1 | 1870-2100 | |||||||
A1 | SRES A1 scenario | 1 | 1870-2100 | |||||||
A2 | SRES A2 scenario | 1 | 1870-2100 | |||||||
B2 | SRES B2 scenario | 1 | 1870-2100 | |||||||
CMIP2 | 1% CO2 | 1 | 100 | 1.58 | 2.2 | |||||
14 | ECHAM3/LSG DKRZ |
G | Historical equiv CO2 to 1990 then 1% CO2 (approx. IS92a) | 1 | 1881-2085 | Cubasch et al., 1992, 1994, 1996 | ||||
G2050 | As G but forcing stabilised at 2050 (2x initial CO2) | 1 | 850 after stability | |||||||
G2110 | As G but forcing stabilised at 2110 (4x initial CO2) | 2 | 850 after stability | Voss and Mikolajewicz, 2001 | Periodically synchronous coupling | |||||
GS | As G + direct effect of sulphate aerosols | 2 | 1881-2050 | |||||||
ML | Equilibrium 2xCO2 in mixed-layer experiment | 1 | 60 | 3.2 | Cubasch et al., 1992, 1994, 1996b | |||||
15 | ECHAM4/OPYC MPI |
CMIP2 | 1% CO2 | 1 | 80 | 1.4 | 2.6 | Roeckner et al., 1999 | ||
G | Historical GHGs to 1990 then IS92a | 1 | 1860-2099 | |||||||
GS | As G +direct effect of sulphate aerosol interactively calculated | 1 | 1860-2049 | |||||||
GSIO | As GS +indirect effect of sulphate aerosol +ozone | 1 | 1860-2049 | |||||||
A2 | SRES A2 scenario | 1 | 1990-2100 | Stendel et al., 2000 | ||||||
B2 | SRES B2 scenario | 1 | 1990-2100 | |||||||
16 | GFDL_R15_a GFDL |
ML | Equilibrium 2xCO2 in mixed-layer experiment | 2 | 40 | 3.7 (3.9)b |
Manabe et al., 1991 | 15,000 year control | ||
CMIP2 | 1% CO2 | 2 | 80 | 2.15 | 4.2 | Stouffer and Manabe, 1999 | ||||
CMIP270 | As CMIP2 but forcing stabilised at year 70 (2x initial CO 2 ) | 1 | 4000 | (4.5)c | ||||||
CMIP2140 | As CMIP2 but forcing stabilised at year 140 (4 x initial CO2) | 1 | 5000 | |||||||
G | Historical equivalent CO2 to 1990 then 1% CO 2 (approximate IS92a) | 1 | 1766-2065 | Haywood et al., 1997; Sarmiento et al., 1998 | ||||||
GS | As G + direct effect of sulphate aerosols | 2 | 1766-2065 | |||||||
17 | GFDL_R15_b GFDL |
CMIP2 | 1% CO2 | 1 | 80 | Data unavailable | ||||
GS | Historical equivalent CO2 to 1990 then 1% CO2 (approximate IS92a) + direct effect of sulphate aerosols | 3 | 1766-2065 | Dixon and Lanzante, 1999 | ||||||
3 | 1866-2065 | |||||||||
3 | 1916-2065 | |||||||||
18 | GFDL_R30_c GFDL |
ML | Equilibrium 2xCO2 in mixed-layer experiment | 1 | 40 | 3.4 | 2 x1,000year control runs with different oceanic dia- pycnal mixing | |||
CMIP2 | 1% CO2 | 2 | 80 | 1.96 | ||||||
CMIP270 | As CMIP2 but forcing stabilised at year 70 (2 x initial CO2) | 1 | 140 after stability | Different oceanic diapycnal mixing | ||||||
CMIP2140 | As CMIP2 but forcing stabilised at year 140 (4 x initial CO2) | 1 | 160 after stability | |||||||
GS | 1% CO (approximate IS92a) + direct effect of sulphate aerosols Historical equivalent CO2 to 1990 then | 9 | 1866-2090 | Knutson et al., 1999 | ||||||
A2 | SRES A2 scenario | 1 | 1960-2090 | |||||||
B2 | SRES B2 scenario | 1 | 1960-2090 | |||||||
20 | GISS2 GISS |
ML | Equilibrium 2xCO2 in mixed-layer experiment | 1 | 40 | (3.1) d | Yao and Del Genio, 1999 | |||
CMIP2 | 1% CO2 | 1 | 80 | 1.45 | Russell et al., 1995; Russell and Rind, 1999 | |||||
21 | GOALS IAP/LASG |
CMIP2 | 1% CO2 | 1 | 80 | 1.65 | ||||
22 | HadCM2 UKMO |
ML | Equilibrium 2 xCO2 in mixed-layer experiment | 1 | 40 | 4.1 | Senior and Mitchell, 2000 | |||
CMIP2 | 1% CO2 | 1 | 80 | 1.7 | 2.5 | Keen and Murphy, 1997 | 1,000 year control run | |||
CMIP270 | As CMIP2 but forcing stabilised at year 70 (2 x initial CO2) | 1 | 900 after stability | Senior and Mitchell, 2000 | ||||||
G | Historical equivalent CO2 to 1990 then 1% CO2 (approximate IS92a) | 4 | 1881-2085 | Mitchell et al., 1995; Mitchell and Johns, 1997 | ||||||
G2150 | As G but all forcings stabilised in year 2150 | 1 | 110 after stability | Mitchell et al., 2000 | ||||||
GS | As G + direct effect of sulphate aerosols | 4 | 1860-2100 | Mitchell et al., 1995; Mitchell and Johns, 1997 | ||||||
23 | HadCM3 UKMO |
ML | Equilibrium 2xCO2 in mixed-layer experiment | 1 | 30 | 3.3 | Williams et al., 2001 | |||
CMIP2 | 1% CO2 | 1 | 80 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 1,800 year control run | ||||
G | Historical GHGs to 1990 then IS95a | 1 | 1860-2100 | Mitchell et al., 1998; Gregory and Lowe, 2000 Johns et al., 2001 | ||||||
GSIO | As G + direct and indirect effect of sulphate aerosols + ozone changes | 1 | 1860-2100 | |||||||
A2 | SRES A2 scenario | 1 | 1990-2100 | |||||||
B2 | SRES B2 scenario | 1 | 1990-2100 | |||||||
25 | IPSL-CM2 IPSL/LMD |
ML | Equilibrium 2xCO2 in mixed-layer experiment | 1 | 25 | (3.6)e | Ramstein et al., 1998 | |||
CMIP2 | 1% CO2 | 1 | 140 | 1.96 | Barthelet et al., 1998b | |||||
CMIP270 | As CMIP2 but forcing stabilised at year 70 (2 x initial CO2) | 1 | 50 after stability | |||||||
CMIP2140 | As CMIP2 but forcing stabilised at year 140 (4 x initial CO2) | 1 | 60 after stability | |||||||
26 | MRI1 f MRI |
ML | Equilibrium 2xCO2 in mixed-layer experiment | 1 | 60 | 4.8 | Noda et al., 1999a | |||
CMIP2 | 1% CO2 | 1 | 150 | 1.6 | 2.5 | Tokioka et al., 1995, 1996 | ||||
CMIP2S | As CMIP2 + direct effect of sulphate aerosols | 1 | 100 | Japan Met. Agency, 1999 | ||||||
27 | MRI2 MRI |
ML | Equilibrium 2xCO2 in mixed-layer experiment | 1 | 50 | 2.0 | Yukimoto et al., 2001; Noda et al., 2001 | |||
CMIP2 | 1% CO2 | 1 | 150 | 1.1 | 1.5 | |||||
G | Historical equivalent CO2 to 1990 then 1% CO2 (approx IS92a) | 1 | 1900-2100 | |||||||
GS | As G + explicit representation of direct effect of sulphate aerosols | 1 | 1900-2100 | |||||||
A2 | SRES A2 scenario | 1 | 1900-2100 | |||||||
B2 | SRES B2 scenario | 1 | 1900-2100 | |||||||
30 | DOE PCM NCAR |
ML | in mixed-layer exp. Equilibrium 2xCO2 | 1 | 50 | 2.1 | Washington et al., 2000 Meehl et al., 2001 | |||
CMIP2 | 1% CO2 | 5 | 80 | 1.27 | 1.7 | |||||
G | Historical GHGs +direct effect of sulph- CO2 + direct effect of sulphate aerosols includ- ing effects of pollution control policies ate aerosols to 1990 then BAU | 1870-2100 | ||||||||
GS | Historical GHGs +direct effect of except WRE550 scenario for CO2 until it reaches 550 ppm in 2150 sulphate to aerosols to 1990 then as GS | 5 | 1870-2100 | |||||||
GS2150 | Historical GHGs to 1990 then as GS except WRE550 scenario for CO2 until it reaches 550 ppm in 2150. | 5 | 1870-2100 | |||||||
A2 | SRES A2 scenario | 1 | 1870-2100 | |||||||
B2 | SRES B2 scenario | 1 | 1870-2100 | |||||||
a CSM 1.3 was at
the time of the printing of this report not archived completely in the DDC.
It is therefore not considered in calculations and diagrams refering to
the DDC experiments with the exception of Figure
9.5. b The equilibrium climate sensitivity if the control SSTs from the coupled model are used. c The equilibrium climate sensitivity calculated from the coupled model. d The ML experiment used in Table 9.2 for the GISS model were performed with a different atmospheric model to that used in the coupled model listed here. e The ML experiment used in Table 9.2 for the IPSL-CM2 model were performed with a slightly earlier version of the atmospheric model than that used in the coupled model, but tests have suggested the changes would not affect the equilibrium climate sensitivity. f Model MRI1 exists in two versions. At the time of writing, more complete assessment data was available for the earlier version, whose control run is in the CMIP1 database. This model is used in Chapter 8. The model used in Chapter 9 has two extra ocean levels and a modified ocean mixing scheme. Its control run is in the CMIP2 database. The equilibrium climate sensitivities and Transient Climate Responses (shown in this table) of the two models are the same. |
Other reports in this collection |