Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis

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9. Projections of Future Climate Change

Contents

Executive Summary

9.1 Introduction

9.1.1 Background and Recap of Previous Reports
9.1.2 New Types of Model Experiments since 1995

9.2 Climate and Climate Change

9.2.1 Climate Forcing and Climate Response
9.2.2 Simulating Forced Climate Change
9.2.2.1 Signal versus noise
9.2.2.2 Ensembles and averaging
9.2.2.3 Multi-model ensembles
9.2.2.4 Uncertainty

9.3 Projections of Climate Change

9.3.1 Global Mean Response
9.3.1.1 1%/yr CO₂ increase (CMIP2) experiments
9.3.1.2 Projections of future climate from forcing scenario experiments (IS92a)
9.3.1.3 Marker scenario experiments (SRES)
9.3.2 Patterns of Future Climate Change
9.3.2.1 Summary
9.3.3 Range of Temperature Response to SRES Emission Scenarios
9.3.3.1 Implications for temperature of stabilisation of greenhouse gases
9.3.4 Factors that Contribute to the Response
9.3.4.1 Climate sensitivity
9.3.4.2 The role of climate sensitivity and ocean heat uptake
9.3.4.3 Thermohaline circulation changes
9.3.4.4 Time-scales of response
9.3.5 Changes in Variability
9.3.5.1 Intra-seasonal variability
9.3.5.2 Interannual variability
9.3.5.3 Decadal and longer time-scale variability
9.3.5.4 Summary
9.3.6 Changes of Extreme Events
9.3.6.1 Temperature
9.3.6.2 Precipitation and convection
9.3.6.3 Extra-tropical storms
9.3.6.4 Tropical cyclones
9.3.6.5 Commentary on changes in extremes of weather and climate
9.3.6.6 Conclusions

9.4 General Summary

Appendix 9.1: Tuning of a Simple Climate Model to AOGCM Results

References

Co-ordinating Lead Authors
U. Cubasch, G.A. Meehl

Lead Authors
G.J. Boer, R.J. Stouffer, M. Dix, A. Noda, C.A. Senior, S. Raper, K.S. Yap

Contributing Authors
A. Abe-Ouchi, S. Brinkop, M. Claussen, M. Collins, J. Evans, I. Fischer-Bruns, G. Flato, J.C. Fyfe, A. Ganopolski, J.M. Gregory, Z.-Z. Hu, F. Joos, T. Knutson, R. Knutti, C. Landsea, L. Mearns, C. Milly, J.F.B. Mitchell, T. Nozawa, H. Paeth, J. Räisänen, R. Sausen, S. Smith, T. Stocker, A. Timmermann, U. Ulbrich, A. Weaver, J. Wegner, P. Whetton, T. Wigley, M. Winton, F. Zwiers

Review Editors
J.-W. Kim, J. Stone