5.8. Small Island States
Climate change and sea-level rise pose a serious threat to the small island
states, which span the ocean regions of the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans
as well as the Caribbean and Mediterranean Seas. Characteristics of small island
states that increase their vulnerability include their small physical size relative
to large expanses of ocean; limited natural resources; relative isolation; extreme
openness of small economies that are highly sensitive to external shocks and
highly prone to natural disasters and other extreme events; rapidly growing
populations with high densities; poorly developed infrastructure; and limited
funds, human resources, and skills. These characteristics limit the capacity
of small island states to mitigate and adapt to future climate change and sea-level
rise. [17.1.2]
Many small island states already are experiencing the effects of current large
interannual variations in oceanic and atmospheric conditions. As a result, the
most significant and more immediate consequences for small island states are
likely to be related to changes in rainfall regimes, soil moisture budgets,
prevailing winds (speed and direction), short-term variations in regional and
local sea levels, and patterns of wave action. These changes are manifest in
past and present trends of climate and climate variability, with an upward trend
in average temperature by as much as 0.1°C per decade and sea-level rise
of 2 mm yr-1 in the tropical ocean regions in which most of the small
island states are located. Analysis of observational data from various regions
indicates an increase in surface air temperature that has been greater than
global rates of warming, particularly in the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea.
Much of the variability in the rainfall record of the Pacific and Caribbean
islands appears to be closely related to the onset of ENSO. However, part of
the variability also may be attributable to shifts in the Intertropical and
South Pacific Convergence Zone, whose influence on rainfall variability patterns
must be better understood. The interpretation of current sea-level trends also
is constrained by limitations of observational records, particularly from geodetic-controlled
tide gauges. [17.1.3]
5.8.1. Equity and Sustainable Development
Although the contribution of small island states to global emissions of
GHG is insignificant, projected impacts of climate change and sea-level rise
on these states are likely to be serious. The impacts will be felt for many
generations because of small island states' low adaptive capacity, high sensitivity
to external shocks, and high vulnerability to natural disasters. Adaptation
to these changing conditions will be extremely difficult for most small island
states to accomplish in a sustainable manner. [17.2.1]
5.8.2. Coastal Zone
Much of the coastal change currently experienced in small island states
is attributed to human activities on the coast. Projected sea-level rise of
5 mm yr-1 over the next 100 years, superimposed on further coastal
development, will have negative impacts on the coasts (high confidence).
This in turn will increase the vulnerability of coastal environments by reducing
natural resilience and increasing the cost of adaptation. Given that severity
will vary regionally, the most serious considerations for some small island
states will be whether they will have adequate potential to adapt to sea-level
rise within their own national boundaries. [17.2.2.1,
17.2.3]
5.8.3. Ecosystems and Biodiversity
Projected future climate change and sea-level rise will affect shifts in
species composition and competition. It is estimated that one of every three
known threatened plants are island endemics while 23% of bird species found
on islands are threatened. [17.2.5]
Coral reefs, mangroves, and seagrass beds that often rely on stable environmental
conditions will be adversely affected by rising air and sea temperature and
sea levels (medium confidence). Episodic warming of the sea surface has
resulted in greatly stressed coral populations that are subject to widespread
coral bleaching. Mangroves, which are common on low-energy, nutrient/sediment-rich
coasts and embayments in the tropics, have been altered by human activities.
Changes in sea levels are likely to affect landward and alongshore migration
of remnants of mangrove forests that provide protection for coasts and other
resources. An increase in SST would adversely affect seagrass communities, which
already are under stress from land-based pollution and runoff. Changes in these
systems are likely to negatively affect fishery populations that depend on them
for habitat and breeding grounds. [17.2.4]
5.8.4. Water Resources, Agriculture, and Fisheries
Water resources and agriculture are of critical concern because most small
island states possess limited arable land and water resources. Communities rely
on rainwater from catchments and a limited freshwater lens. In addition, arable
farming, especially on low islands and atolls, is concentrated at or near the
coast. Changes in the height of the water table and soil salinization as a consequence
of sea-level rise would be stressful for many staple crops, such as taro.
Although fishing is largely artisinal or small-scale commercial, it is an important
activity on most small islands and makes a significant contribution to the protein
intake of island inhabitants. Many breeding grounds and habitats for fish and
shellfish -- such as mangroves, coral reefs, seagrass beds, and salt ponds -- will
face increasing threats from likely impacts of projected climate change. Water
resources, agriculture, and fisheries already are sensitive to currently observed
variability in oceanic and atmospheric conditions in many small island states,
and the impacts are likely to be exacerbated by future climate and sea-level
change (high confidence). [17.2.6,
17.2.8.1]
5.8.5. Human Health, Settlement, Infrastructure and Tourism
Several human systems are likely to be affected by projected changes in
climate and sea levels in many small island states. Human health is a major
concern given that many tropical islands are experiencing high incidences of
vector- and waterborne diseases that are attributable to changes in temperature
and rainfall, which may be linked to the ENSO phenomenon, droughts, and floods.
Climate extremes also create a huge burden on some areas of human welfare, and
these burdens are likely to increase in the future. Almost all settlements,
socioeconomic infrastructure, and activities such as tourism are located at
or near coastal areas in small island states. Tourism provides a major source
of revenue and employment for many small island states (Table
TS-13). Changes in temperature and rainfall regimes, as well as loss of
beaches, could devastate the economies of many small island states (high confidence).
Because these areas are very vulnerable to future climate change and sea-level
rise, it is important to protect and nourish beaches and sites by implementing
programs that constitute wise use resources. Integrated coastal management has
been identified as one approach that would be useful for many small island states
for a sustainable tourism industry. [17.2.7,
17.2.9]
| Table TS-13: Importance of tourism for select small
island states and territories. |
 |
|
Country
|
Number of Tourists (000s)a
|
Tourists as % of Populationa
|
Tourist Receiptsb
|
|
as % of GNP
|
as % of Exports
|
|
| Antigua and Barbuda |
232
|
364
|
63
|
74
|
| Bahamas |
1618
|
586
|
42
|
76
|
| Barbados |
472
|
182
|
39
|
56
|
| Cape Verde |
45
|
11
|
12
|
37
|
| Comoros |
26
|
5
|
11
|
48
|
| Cuba |
1153
|
11
|
9
|
n/a
|
| Cyprus |
2088
|
281
|
24
|
49
|
| Dominica |
65
|
98
|
16
|
33
|
| Dominican Republic |
2211
|
28
|
14
|
30
|
| Fiji |
359
|
45
|
19
|
29
|
| Grenada |
111
|
116
|
27
|
61
|
| Haiti |
149
|
2
|
4
|
51
|
| Jamaica |
1192
|
46
|
32
|
40
|
| Maldives |
366
|
131
|
95
|
68
|
| Malta |
1111
|
295
|
23
|
29
|
| Mauritius |
536
|
46
|
16
|
27
|
| Papua New Guinea |
66
|
2
|
2
|
3
|
| St. Kitts and Nevis |
88
|
211
|
31
|
64
|
| St. Lucia |
248
|
165
|
41
|
67
|
| St. Vincent |
65
|
55
|
24
|
46
|
| Samoa |
68
|
31
|
20
|
49
|
| Seychelles |
130
|
167
|
35
|
52
|
| Singapore |
7198
|
209
|
6
|
4
|
| Solomon Islands |
16
|
4
|
3
|
4
|
| Trinidad and Tobago |
324
|
29
|
4
|
8
|
| Vanuatu |
49
|
27
|
19
|
41
|
|
5.8.6. Sociocultural and Traditional Assets
Certain traditional island assets (good and services) also will be at risk
from climate change and sea-level rise. These assets include subsistence and
traditional technologies (skills and knowledge) and cohesive community structures
that, in the past, have helped to buttress the resilience of these islands to
various forms of shock. Sea-level rise and climate changes, combined with other
environmental stresses, already have destroyed unique cultural and spiritual
sites, traditional heritage assets, and important coastal protected areas in
many Pacific island states. [17.2.10]
