Letter to San Jose Mercury-News
(submitted by not yet published)


Daniel A. Lashof's "Stronger Storms are on the Horizon" (Sept. 21), suggests that strong storms such as hurricane Floyd will become stronger and more frequent in the future because of global warming. Don't believe it. Most State Climatologists, and many other climate scientists, believe that natural variations, not human causes, are primarily responsible for observed climate trends. There is also no evidence that hurricanes are getting stronger. We appear to have entered a more active hurricane regime in the Atlantic, but this appears to be a repeat of similarly active periods in the 1950s and 1960s and at the turn of the century. In other words, hurricanes follow natural variations as well.

The real problem is that there has been a great deal of lowland development near the coast in the east. A big storm like Floyd thus us able to cause much greater damage than if prudent development had occurred. Hurricanes will always be with us, but global warming is not the reason, nor is emission control the solution.

George Taylor, State Climatologist for Oregon
President, American Association of State Climatologists


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