Poverty and environmental disasters

By Anil Agarwal Copyright 1998 The Independent (Bangaldesh) August 20, 1998

There is a firm belief amongst economists that poor people are more worried about their present than their future. In other words, the poor discount' their future. This is exactly what is happening in global environmental negotiations which are slowly but steadily setting up a global ecological one'. This is a form of globalisation that even has the support of the civil society in the Western democratic countries. Consumption and productions systems have now reached a level of magnitude that what happens in one country can have a serious impact on another one, even affect the whole world. Therefore, there is an urgent need for all the nations of the world to develop a joint understanding and a joint action plan to protect the world's ecological systems. Global warming poses precisely such a problem. Burning of fossil fuels is increasing the concentration of carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere. And this gas has an ability to trap the solar heat and slowly raise the temperature of the world's atmosphere. The resulting global warming' could have serious effects on the Earth's ecological system and make human life miserable, especially in the developing world. Nobody really knows what will be the exact effects of global warming. But the weather, it is argued, could tend towards the extremes--greater number of episodes of heavy rainfall and hence, floods; greater number of episodes of extreme dryness and hence droughts; more cyclones and what not. The world's scientists have not been able to model the monsoon into their global climate models and hence, nobody know what will be the impact on the monsoon. But just imagine what would happen to India if there was an intensification of the monsoon, or weathering of the monsoon or just a shift of the monsoon towards the Arabian sea or a shift towards the southeastern region of Asia. The inter-governmental panel on climate change - an international group of scientist sponsored by the United Nations - has already calculated that developing countries will be twice more vulnerable than developed countries, because of their economic conditions, and small island nations will be three times vulnerable. If carbon dioxide concentration was to double, the economic damages and adaptation costs would amount to 1-2 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) for developed countries and 2-9 per cent for developing countries. In such a scenario, what would you expect the government of India to do? Undertake serious studies, understand the global politics surrounding global warming, develop clear and round positions that take the nation's long term economic and ecological interests into account, and build up a national consensus on the actions that need to be taken, domestically and internationally. That is, in fact, what is happening in the industrialised countries. In developing countries like India, however, there is an extraordinary silence. Ask any of cabinet ministers if they have heard of global warming, the answer you will get from everyone is no'. They have definitely not met as a cabinet to develop strategies. Confronted with innumerable problems today, India's leadership cannot think of anything beyond today and is, therefore, like the economist's poor person who is heavily discounting' the future. But a nation's leadership should be concerned about poverty'--in fact, deeply concerned about poverty'--but its mind and mental framework cannot be full-of poverty'. It has to be for the sighted like a statesperson.-CSE/Down To Earth Features

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