WASHINGTON -- Forecast: Rising sea levels, spreading tropical diseases, more violent storms, but who knows where or when?
For the 100 television weather forecasters invited to Washington as part of the White House's campaign to raise awareness of global warming, Wednesday was often frustrating. They heard many disturbing questions raised, but got few answers specific enough to hang a prediction on.
A morning discussion focused on how, in the next century, rising levels of manmade carbon dioxide might trigger a 3.5-degree increase in temperatures, accompanied by coastal flooding causing $1.5 billion in damages; the northward spread of malaria and other diseases; and more severe rains, droughts and hurricanes. The forecasters began to squirm: Where? they wondered. When?
Then Daniel Albritton, one of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's top weather experts, threw in a caveat: NOAA's computer models aren't good enough "to predict what will happen to the climate in a particular year or a particular place." They are giving only "broad knowledge," he added.
Tammy Garrison of WDRB television station in Louisville, Ky., wanted to know whether Kentucky would see more killer rains, like the 14-inch deluge that hit her city in March. NOAA's top forecaster didn't know. "I'm supposed to do prediction on a micro climate and they're forecasting on a macro level," Ms. Garrison grumbled.
"If we were to bring our viewers here, they wouldn't understand much of this at all," said Randy Jackson, of WFMY in Greensboro, N.C. He left a morning session wondering about mushy statements. "You hear them say "we think, we're not sure, maybe if ... "; those aren't very conclusive terms."
Mike Davis of WBNS in Columbus, Ohio, was left with lots of questions. "Global warming is one of those way-out-there issues. Does it affect me? My children? My grandchildren?"
In the afternoon, the forecasters met with the president and vice president. Brian Norcross of WFOR in Miami got to do three interviews from the White House lawn. He conceded that he and some of his colleagues took a somewhat cloudy view of the event's political agenda. "The first question we had was, "What were we doing here?', and we're still talking about that."
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