Global-warming Predictions May Not
Always Be What They Seem

Copyright 1997 The Lancet
December 20, 1997


Global warming, it is widely claimed, will inevitably cause increases in vectorborne diseases. A different story was told at a symposium on climate change and vectorborne disease at the American Society for Tropical Medicine and Hygiene annual meeting (Lake Buena Vista, FL, USA; Dec 7-11).

Symposium chair Paul Reiter, of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Puerto Rico, told The Lancet that although all vectorborne diseases are influenced by climate, "it is simplistic and misleading to say that climate change will necessarily bring an increase in all these diseases".

For example, Reiter questioned the widespread belief that global warming will cause diseases like malaria, dengue, and yellow fever to invade temperate regions, for the simple reason that all these diseases were once common in such regions, but have disappeared because of factors such as improved housing and sanitation. And, Duane Gubler (CDC) explained that the emergence of dengue fever in the past 3 decades is attributable to a breakdown of mosquito control, increased mobility of people, and other human factors rather than climate change.

Undoubtedly, some diseases are spreading, but, said Reiter, "this spread is the result, directly or indirectly, of human activity"--factors more influential than temperature or rainfall.


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