Climate Change 2001: Working Group III: Mitigation

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4.8 Future Research Needs

This chapter suggests a host of future research needs. A combination of statistical, ecological, and socio-economic research would be helpful to better understand the situation of the land, the forces of land-use change and the dynamic of forest carbon pools in relation to human activities and natural disturbance. More precise information is needed about degradation or improvement of secondary and natural forests throughout the world, but particularly in developing countries.

Some specific examples are:

• assessment of land available for mitigation options based on socio-economic pressures and land tenure policies. Furthermore, it would be beneficial if the impact of market price of carbon mitigated on land available for mitigation opportunities in different countries was understood;
• implications of financial incentives and mechanisms on LULUCF sector mitigation potential in different countries;
• comparative advantage (mitigation cost, ancillary benefits, etc.) of LULUCF sector mitigation options over energy sector opportunities;
• development and assessment of different approaches to developing baselines for LULUCF activities and comparison with other sectors; and
• socio-economic and environmental costs and benefits of implementing LULUCF sector mitigation options in developing countries, including issues such as property rights and land tenure.

Finally, an important consideration is the problem of leakages. Research would help to determine the conditions under which leakage is likely to be a serious problem and when it may be less so. Estimates of the degree of leakage under varying circumstances could be made so that appropriate adjustments in carbon credits can be made.