Figure 9-2: Potential impact
of climate change on seasonal transmission of falciparum malaria. Output from
MIASMA v2.0 malaria model (Martens et al., 1999) indicates the number of months
per year when climate conditions are suitable for falciparum transmission and
where there is competent mosquito vector: (a) months of potential transmission
under current climate (1961-1990); (b) months of potential transmission under
a GHG-only climate scenario (HadCM2 ensemble mean) in the 2080s. Future changes
in mosquito distributions are not modeled. This model does not take into account
control or eradication activities that have significantly limited the distribution
of malaria.
