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Parts of the Arctic and Antarctic where water is close to its melting point are highly sensitive to climate change, rendering their biota and socioeconomic life particularly vulnerable. Adaptation to climate change will occur in natural polar ecosystems mainly through migration and changing mixes of species. This may cause some species to become threatened (e.g., walrus, seals, polar bears), whereas others may flourish (e.g., fish, penguins). Although such changes may be disruptive to many local ecological systems and particular species, the possibility remains that predicted climate change eventually will increase the overall productivity of natural systems in polar regions.
For people, successful future adaptation to change depends on technological
advances, institutional arrangements, availability of financing, and information
exchange. Stakeholders must be involved in studies from the beginning as well
as in discussions of any adaptive and mitigative measures (Weller and Lange,
1999). For indigenous communities following traditional lifestyles, opportunities
for adaptation to climate change appear to be limited. Long-term climate change,
combined with other stresses, may cause the decline and eventual disappearance
of communities. Technologically developed communities are likely to adapt quite
readily to climate change by adopting altered modes of transport and by increased
investment to take advantage of new commercial and trade opportunities.
Except in the Antarctic Peninsula, the Antarctic and the Southern Ocean probably
will respond slowly to climate change; consequently, there will be less obvious
impact in this region by 2100. Nevertheless, these areas are vulnerable because
climate change could initiate millennial-scale processes with the potential
to cause irreversible impacts on ice sheets, global ocean circulation, and sea-level
rise. Antarctic drivers of sea-level rise, slowdown of the ocean thermohaline
circulation, and changes in marine ecological habitats will continue for several
centuries, long after GHG emissions are stabilized.
Distinctive patterns of development in the Arctic arise from the special nature
of northern communities. The region is marked by decentralized administration
and the presence of relict military establishments. The main forms of resource
use are oil, gas, and mineral mining (e.g., lead, zinc, gold, diamonds), ecotourism,
fishing, and traditional hunting and gathering by indigenous peoples. Further
development of these resources is likely. Maintenance of existing infrastructure
is likely to be more costly. Transportation may be affected as permafrost thaws
and ice disappears. Waste disposal strategies also will have to change. Reduced
sea ice will change strategic defense situations, especially for navies of the
large powers flanking the Arctic. Sovereignty issues are of concern because
of confusion over northern boundaries, the increased likelihood of territorial
disputes as ice gives way to open water, and new northern sea routes create
new trade patterns. Changes in sea ice and easier navigation may bring new policy
initiatives, and improved sea access will greatly increase ecotourism. Overall,
there will be increased human activity in the Arctic.
There are large regional differences across the Arctic in development, infrastructure,
and ability of people to cope with climate change. Increasingly, Arctic communities
are sustainable only with support from the south. Indigenous peoples are more
sensitive to climate change than nonindigenous peoples. Their homelands and
hunting habitats will be directly affected, and they cannot easily retreat to
less affected areas. Some native peoples may be able to adapt, but probably
at the expense of traditional lifestyles. Nonindigenous peoples also are vulnerable
where links with the south are broken by changes in the physical environment
and altered political circumstances. Their lifestyles require high capital investment,
which will have to be maintained or even increased for them to be adaptable
to climate change. With climate change, economies that rely on support from
the south may become more expensive because of disrupted land-based transport,
and this may not be sustainable. However, new transport opportunities, growing
communities, and easier mining will create new wealth—but only for those
who move away from traditional lifestyles.
In Antarctica, future use of the continent is governed by the Antarctic Treaty, and there are no permanent residents. With regard to policy issues, changes in the climate may mean less sea ice, easier access for ecotourism, and increased pressure on the environment. Sustaining the Antarctic's pristine nature may become more difficult.
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