15.3. Adaptation Potential and Vulnerability
15.3.1. Generic Issues
Subregions within North America can be affected by global climate change through
direct first-order effects on land and water resources and through indirect
impacts that are related to reactive and proactive responses by actors within
and outside the subregion. Direct effects include incremental processes and
extreme weather events with long-term impact on the region's environmental,
social, or economic systems. Indirect effects would include societal changes
that could be set in motion, primarily by policies generated outside the region,
to mitigate greenhouse warming or adapt to perceived threats.
Calculations of climate-related impacts within subregions must consider both
direct and indirect effects. Actual impacts will depend on the effectiveness
of adaptation. For example, changes in growing season, natural streamflow, or
climate-related demand for heating and cooling energy can be calculated directly
from changes in climatic parameters. However, changes in potential may not necessarily
lead to a response by stakeholders. Other factors may intervene to prevent a
subregion from adapting to a new climate-related opportunity or risk, including
changes in market conditions, institutional arrangements, and management objectives.
Because North America includes areas of intensive urban and landscape management,
as well as areas of "extensive" management, adaptation capabilities
and vulnerabilities are likely to vary between subregions. There is potential
for maladaptation, in part as a result of the availability of insurance and
disaster relief measures (MacIver, 1998). Vulnerabilities also exist in highly
developed regions with well-maintained infrastructure (e.g., dams designed for
flood control) because of the growing need to manage resources to achieve multiple
objectives. Would climate change ameliorate or exacerbate these risks? Analysis
of case studies can provide guidance.
| Table 15-5: Estimated damages from 1998 ice storm.a |
 |
| Type of Loss |
Canada (CDN$)
|
United States (US$)
|
Total (US$)
|
| |
| Insured losses |
$1.44 billion
|
$0.2 billion
|
$1.2 billion
|
| Insurance claims |
696,590
|
139,650
|
835,240
|
| Deaths |
28
|
17
|
45
|
| People (customers) without power |
4,700,000
(1,673,000)
|
546,000
|
5,246,000
|
| Electricity transmission towers/distribution poles toppled |
130/30,000
|
unknown
|
unknown
|
| Electric transmission system damage |
$1 billion
|
unknown
|
unknown
|
Manufacturing, transportation, communications, and retail
business losses |
$1.6 billion
|
unknown
|
unknown
|
| Forests damaged |
unknown
|
17.5 million acres
|
unknown
|
| Loss of worker income |
$1 billion
|
unknown
|
unknown
|
| Dairy producers experiencing business disruption |
5,500
|
unknown
|
unknown
|
| Loss of milk |
$7.3 million
|
$12.7 million
|
$18 million
|
| Agricultural sector (poultry, livestock, maple syrup) |
$25 million
|
$10.5 million
|
$28 million
|
| Quebec and Ontario governments |
$1.1 billion
|
|
|
| |
