Continued from previous page
| Table 11-6: Prevalence of undernourishment in developing
countries of Asia (FAO, 1999a; UNICEF, 1999). |
 |
| Country/Region |
Popu-lation, 1996 (millions)
|
Main Cereal Consumed, 1995-1997
|
Dietary Energy Supply per Person, 1995-1997
(kcal day-1)
|
Access to Adequate Sanitation, 1990-1997
(%)
|
Under 5 Mortality Rate, 1995
(per 1000)
|
Number of Under- nourished People
(millions)
|
Fraction of Population Under- nourished, 1979-1981
(%)
|
Fraction of Population Under- nourished, 1995-1997
(%)
|
|
| Arid and Semi-Arid Asia |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| - Afghanistan |
20.3
|
Wheat
|
1730
|
8
|
257
|
12.7
|
33
|
62
|
| - Iran |
63.5
|
Wheat
|
2830
|
81
|
40
|
3.7
|
9
|
6
|
| - Iraq |
20.6
|
Wheat
|
2370
|
75
|
71
|
3.2
|
4
|
15
|
| - Jordan |
4.4
|
Wheat
|
2910
|
77
|
25
|
0.1
|
6
|
3
|
| - Kuwait |
1.7
|
Wheat
|
3060
|
—
|
14
|
0.1
|
4
|
3
|
| - Lebanon |
3.1
|
Wheat
|
3270
|
63
|
40
|
0.1
|
8
|
2
|
| - Pakistan |
140.1
|
Wheat
|
2460
|
56
|
137
|
26.3
|
31
|
19
|
| - Saudi Arabia |
18.9
|
Wheat
|
2800
|
86
|
34
|
0.7
|
3
|
4
|
| - Syrian Arab Republic |
14.6
|
Wheat
|
3330
|
67
|
36
|
0.2
|
3
|
1
|
| - Turkey |
62.3
|
Wheat
|
3520
|
80
|
50
|
1.0
|
2
|
2
|
| - United Arab Emirates |
2.3
|
Rice/Wheat
|
3360
|
92
|
19
|
0.0
|
1
|
2
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Temperate Asia |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| - China |
1238.8
|
Rice
|
2840
|
24
|
47
|
164.4
|
30
|
13
|
| - Korea, DPR |
22.6
|
Maize/Rice
|
1980
|
—
|
30
|
10.8
|
19
|
48
|
| - Korea, Republic |
45.3
|
Rice
|
3160
|
100
|
9
|
0.4
|
1
|
1
|
| - Mongolia |
2.5
|
Wheat
|
1920
|
86
|
74
|
1.2
|
27
|
48
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| South Asia |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| - Bangladesh |
120.6
|
Rice
|
2080
|
43
|
115
|
44.0
|
42
|
37
|
| - India |
950.0
|
Rice
|
2470
|
29
|
115
|
204.4
|
38
|
22
|
| - Nepal |
21.8
|
Rice
|
2320
|
16
|
114
|
4.6
|
46
|
21
|
| - Sri Lanka |
18.1
|
Rice
|
2290
|
63
|
19
|
4.6
|
22
|
25
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Southeast Asia |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| - Cambodia |
10.2
|
Rice
|
2050
|
19
|
174
|
3.4
|
62
|
33
|
| - Indonesia |
200.4
|
Rice
|
2900
|
59
|
75
|
11.5
|
26
|
6
|
| - Laos |
4.9
|
Rice
|
2060
|
18
|
134
|
1.6
|
32
|
33
|
| - Malaysia |
20.5
|
Rice
|
2940
|
94
|
13
|
0.4
|
4
|
2
|
| - Myanmar |
43.4
|
Rice
|
2850
|
43
|
150
|
2.8
|
19
|
7
|
| - Philippines |
69.9
|
Rice
|
2360
|
75
|
53
|
15.6
|
27
|
22
|
| - Thailand |
59.2
|
Rice
|
2350
|
96
|
32
|
14.3
|
28
|
24
|
| - Vietnam |
75.1
|
Rice
|
2470
|
21
|
45
|
14.1
|
33
|
19
|
|
Figure 11-10: Normalized trends in grain production in Bangladesh,
India, and Pakistan since 1970 (CIA, 1998). |
Ongoing studies on crop productivity in relation to global
warming cover not only biophysical aspects but also socioeconomic drivers and
consequences (Fischer et al., 1995; Islam, 1995). The economic impacts of climate
change on world agriculture are expected to be relatively minor because decreasing
food production in some areas will be balanced by gains in others (e.g., Kane
et al., 1991; Tobey et al., 1992; Rosenzweig and Parry, 1993). Such findings
however, should be viewed as aggregate results that mask crucial differences
in inter-country and intra-country production impacts and the distribution of
food resources. In Asia, where rice is one of the main staple foods, production
and distribution of rice-growing areas may be affected substantially by climate
change. Disparity between rice-producing countries is already visible, and it
is increasingly evident between developed and developing countries (Fischer
et al., 1996). The projected decline in potential yield and total production
of rice in some Asian countries because of changes in climate and climate variability
would have a significant effect on trade in agricultural commodities, hence
on economic growth and stability (Matthews et al., 1995b)
Increasing population growth and changing dietary patterns in Asia have resulted
in more and more land moving from forests and grasslands into agricultural production.
Regardless of the increased use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, in addition
to changes in irrigation practices and improved seed stock, yields for major
cereal crops have stagnated in many Asian countries during recent years (Iglesias
et al., 1996; Sinha, 1997); further intensification of agriculture on area in
cropland is certain, and conversion of more land to agricultural use is likely,
especially in the developing countries of Asia. Both actions will have far-reaching
implications with regard to increased soil erosion, loss of soil fertility,
loss of genetic variability in crops, and depletion of water resources (Sinha
et al., 1998). Soil degradation is seemingly irreversible unless remedied through
painstaking reconstruction of soil health.
A clear understanding of the relationship between climatic variability, crop
management, and agricultural productivity is critical in assessing the impacts
of climatic variability and change on crop production, the identification of
adaptation strategies and appropriate management practices, and the formulation
of mitigating measures to minimize the negative effects of climatic variability
(including extreme events) on agricultural productivity. In the future, food
security will be at the top of the agenda in Asian countries because of two
emerging events: growing population, and many direct and indirect effects of
climate change. Greatly enhanced efforts to understand the relationship between
key climate elements and agriculture should provide a sound basis for meeting
the challenges of optimizing the benefits of changing climatic resources.
In some Asian countries, the pace of food grain production has slowed in recent
years as a result of depletion of soil nutrients and water resources, creation
of salinity and waterlogging, resurgence of pests and diseases, and increased
environmental pollution (Gadgil, 1995). Many natural as well as environmental
factors—such as extremely dry or cold climates, erratic rainfall, storms
and floods, topsoil erosion and severe land degradation, and poor investment
and lack of appropriate technology—have played limiting roles in the agricultural
potential of most developing countries of Asia (see also Section
5.3). For example, food grain production in Pakistan and India has continued
to increase since the 1970s while it has stagnated in Bangladesh (Figure
11-10), largely because of increased losses to climate extremes and land
degradation. In India, the estimated total requirement for food grains would
be more than 250 Mt by 2010; the gross arable area is expected to increase from
191 to 215 Mha by 2010, which would require an increase of cropping intensity
to approximately 150% (Sinha et al., 1998). Because land is a fixed resource
for agriculture, the need for more food in India could be met only through higher
yield per units of land, water, energy, and time—such as through precision
farming. To ensure food security in the developing countries of south and southeast
Asia, it is necessary to expand agricultural production, develop the food distribution
system, and promote nutrition education, as well as expand the economy and adjust
the distribution of incomes.
