Climate Change 2001: Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

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10.2.2. Food Security

10.2.2.1. Context of Food Security

Present and future prospects for food security are significant determinants of the impacts of climate change. International agricultural systems and socioeconomic conditions at the household level are major elements of vulnerability. The consequences of present vulnerability for hunger and nutrition are marked. Regional indicators related to food security are shown in Table 10-2.

Table 10-2: Indicators of regional vulnerability in Africa (WRI, 1996).
(a) Vulnerability Indicators
		Expenditure on Food (% of consumption)	Food Aid (Cereals) kg per capita	Refugees	Adult Female Literacy (%)	Infant Mortality (per 1000)
African Regiona
	-Northern	42	18	221,450	45	59
	-Sudano-Sahelian	42	13	974,800	17	119
	-Gulf of Guinea	39	6	819,750	28	109
	-Central	39	3	480,500	41	91
	-Eastern	37	4	1,408,150	43	102
	-Indian Ocean	57	12	0	73	66
	-Southern	57	15	1,793,800	53	85
Total		57	10	5,698,450	35	97
Comparison Country
	-Bangladesh	59	12	245,300	22	108
	-Thailand	30	2	255,000	90	26
	-Mexico	35	3	47,300	85	35
	-Greece	30	-1	1,900	89	8
	-United Kingdom	12	-3	24,600		7

(b) Regional Agriculture in Africa
	Pop Density (pop. km-2)	Pop Growth (%)	Crop Land (% of total)	Irrigated Land (% of total)	Avg Yield of Cereals (kg ha-1)	Ferti lizer Use (kg yr-1)	Food Prod Index (1970= 100)	GNP per Capita (US$)	GNP in Agri culture (%)	GNP Growth Rate (% yr-1)	Public Agri- cultural Invest ment (US$)
Regiona
-Northern	226	2.25	5	27	1,973	94	115	1,285	17	3.60	25
-Sudano- Sahelian	106	2.72	4	7	727	5	90	860	34	2.36	7
-Gulf of Guinea	891	2.83	21	2	892	6	100	760	39	1.87	15
-Central	145	2.70	4	1	923	2	87	760	22	2.15	5
-Eastern	451	2.88	10	2	1,363	12	92	593	47	3.05	13
-Indian Ocean	262	1.96	5	23	1,988	140	98	280	22	3.85	6
-Southern	208	2.56	6	7	929	27	76	333	21	3.38	7
Total	253	2.65	6	8	1,098	25	92	355	30	2.75	11
Comparison Country
-Bangladesh	9,853	2.18	72	31	2,572	101	96	205	37	4.20	68
-Thailand	1141	0.92	45	19	2,052	39	109	1,697	13	7.80	78
-Mexico	491	1.55	13	21	2,430	69	100	2,971	8	1.50	129
-Greece	795	0.07	30	31	3,700	172	101	6,530	17	1.60	25
-UK	2,404	0.19	28	2	6,332	350	112	33,850	2	2.80	347
a Northern: Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia; Sudano-Sahelian: Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Chad, Djibouti, Eritria, The Gambia, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Senegal, Somalia, Sudan; Gulf of Guinea: Benin, Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Togo; Central: Angola, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Sao Tome and Principe, Democratic Republic of Congo; Eastern: Burundi, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda; Indian Ocean: Comoros, Madagascar, Mautitius, Seychelles; Southern: Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia, Zimbabwe.

Food production in most of SSA has not kept pace with the population increase over the past 3 decades. In Africa as a whole, food consumption exceeded domestic production by 50% in the drought-prone mid-1980s and more than 30% in the mid-1990s (WRI, 1998). Food aid constitutes a major proportion of net food trade in Africa, and in many countries it constitutes more than half of net imports. In Kenya and Tanzania, for instance, food aid constituted two-thirds of food imports during the 1990s. Despite food imports, per capita dietary energy supply (DES) remains relatively low (Hulme, 1996); about one-third of the countries in Africa had per capita DES of less than 2,000 kcal day-1 in the 1990s—lower than the minimum recommended intake (data from WRI, 1998).

Agricultural and economic growth must rise—perhaps by 4% yr^-1—to realize basic development goals. Today, only a few countries achieve this rate of growth. One consequence of agricultural growth could be a doubling by the year 2050 of cultivated land area—at great cost to the natural environment—unless there is greater investment in agricultural management and technology on existing cropland (Anon, 1999). The scale of food imports fosters dependence on food production in the rest of the world. Africa faces the risk that supplies will fluctuate drastically with the rise and fall of grain reserves and prices on international markets. A major challenge facing Africa is to increase agricultural production and achieve sustainable economic growth; both are essential to improving food security.

Agriculture is not only a vital source of food in Africa; it also is the prevailing way of life. An average of 70% of the population lives by farming, and 40% of all exports are earned from agricultural products (WRI, 1996). One-third of the national income in Africa is generated by agriculture. Crop production and livestock husbandry account for about half of household income. The poorest members of society are those who are most dependent on agriculture for jobs and income. On average, the poor from developing countries of SSA spend 60-80% of their total income on food (see Odingo, 1990; WRI, 1998; FAO, 1999b). Although industry is significant in a few patches, it still is in its infancy. In many countries, the level of mechanization—including irrigation, processing, and storage facilities—is particularly low.

High-quality land resources per household have shrunk in Africa over the past 2 decades, often dramatically. Traditional, social, and legal status in the sub-Saharan region is responsible for unequal access to land. This, in turn, increases the risk of resource degradation. Lack of land tenure security reduces the motivation to invest in conservation of resources.

Agriculture and household incomes are characterized by large interannual and seasonal variations. The annual flow of income normally rises and peaks during the harvest season. Nonagricultural and migrant, off-farm wage incomes are substitutes during the dry season. The period preceding the harvest is critical: Farmers engage in unemployment-induced migration to urban centers as one of the strategies for coping with scarcity. Fluctuations in annual food production resulting from climate variability place a heavy reliance on food aid, at the national and household levels.

Reduced food supplies and high prices immediately affect landless laborers who have little or no savings. Poverty, population, and sometimes conflicts combine to affect education in many African countries. As a result of population pressure as well as rural and urban economic depression, population mobility sets in. Populations move from the savanna to the forest, from plateaus to drained valleys, from landlocked countries to coastal areas and those with infrastructures, and from rural to urban centers within a country in search of better lands and opportunities (Davies, 1996). Internal mobility and its consequences vary from country to country: It is low in Ghana, Madagascar, Malawi, Burundi, and Rwanda but high in Burkina Faso and Kenya and very high in Cote d'Ivoire. Migrations lead to high and rising urban growth across the African region. This translates into increasing pressure on the environment, including social amenities.