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5.2. Effects of Global Change on the Terrestrial Biosphere
5.2.1. Observational Studies
5.2.2. Current Models of Ecosystem Change
5.2.3. Impacts on Biodiversity5.2.3.1. Global Models of Biodiversity Change5.2.4. Challenges5.2.4.1. Landscape Processes
5.2.4.2. Will Organisms have to Migrate?
5.2.4.3. Human Land-Use Issues
5.2.4.4. Testing Models of Ecosystem Response
5.3.1. State of the Global Agricultural Sector
5.3.2. Pressures on Agriculture Sector5.3.2.1. Degradation of Natural Resources5.3.3. Response of Crops and Livestock and Impacts on Food and Fiber
5.3.2.2. Other Global Change Factors
5.3.3.1. Interaction between Rising CO2 Concentrations and Climate Change5.3.4. Impacts and Adaptation at Farm to Subnational Regional Scales
5.3.3.1.1. Interactive effects of temperature increase and atmospheric CO2 concentration5.3.3.2. Interactive Effects of CO2 Concentrations, Climate Change, Soils, and Biotic Factors
5.3.3.1.2. Interactive effects of water availability and atmospheric CO2 concentration
5.3.3.1.3. Interactive effects of atmospheric chemistry and CO2 concentration
5.3.3.2.1. Interactive effects of CO2 concentrations with soils5.3.3.3. Impacts on Livestock
5.3.3.2.2. Interactions between effects of climate change and soil degradation
5.3.3.2.3. Interactions with weeds, pests, and diseases
5.3.3.4. Response of Plant Crops and Possible Adaptation Options
5.3.4.1. Modeling Crop Yield Impact5.3.5. Modeling Impacts and Adaptation in a Global Economy
5.3.4.2. Historical Analogs of Adaptation
5.3.4.3. Agronomic Adaptation of Yields
5.3.4.4. Adaptation of Livestock
5.3.4.5. Adaptation Effects on Farm and Regional Land Use and Income
5.3.4.6. Environmental and Natural Resource Consequences of Responses and Adaptation to Climate Change
5.3.4.7. Note on Costs of Adaptation
5.3.6. Vulnerability of the Agricultural Sector5.3.6.1. How Much Warming can Global Agriculture Absorb Before Prices Rise?
5.3.6.2. Vulnerable Regions and Populations
5.4.1.1. Current Status of Endangered/Extinct Animals5.4.2. Pressures on Wildlife
5.4.1.2. Species Status from Secure to Extinction: Ranking Risks
5.4.1.3. Wildlife Ties to Goods and Services
5.4.3. Responses of Wildlife and Impacts on Goods and Services
5.4.3.1. Changes Exhibited by Animals5.4.4. Adaptation by Humans for Changes in Goods and Services
5.4.3.1.1. Shifts in animal ranges and abundances5.4.3.2. Model Projections of Wildlife Responses
5.4.3.1.2. Changes in timing (phenology)
5.4.3.1.3. Changes in morphology, physiology, and behavior
5.4.3.1.4. Changes in community composition, biotic interactions, and behavior
5.4.3.3. Impacts on Goods and Services with Market Values
5.4.3.3.1. Control of pest species and disease vectors5.4.3.4. Impacts on Goods and Services with Nonmarket Valuations
5.4.3.3.2. Pollinators
5.4.3.3.3. Seed dispersal
5.4.3.3.4. Decomposers and soil maintainers
5.4.3.3.5. Protection of endangered species
5.4.3.3.6. Subsistence hunting
5.4.3.3.7. Recreational use of animals and ecotourism5.4.3.4.1. Cultural and religious importance of animals
5.4.3.4.2. Wildlife and scientific information
5.4.3.4.3. Ecosystem function and biodiversity maintenance
5.4.4.1. Parks and Reserves5.4.5. Equity Issues
5.4.4.2. Captive Breeding and Translocations
5.4.4.3. Replacing Lost Ecosystem Services
5.4.6. Vulnerabilities, Sensitivities, Uncertainties
5.5. Rangelands (Grasslands, Savannas, and Deserts)
5.5.1. Current Status of Key Goods and Services
5.5.2. Major Pressures on Key Goods and Services
5.5.3. Responses of Rangelands and Impacts on Goods and Services
5.5.4. Adaptation Options5.5.4.1. Landscape Management5.5.5. Vulnerabilities and Sensitivity to Climate Change
5.5.4.2. Selection of Plants and Livestock
5.5.4.3. Multiple Cropping System and Agroforestry
5.5.4.4. Role of Community Participation and Public Policy
5.6.1. Current Status and Trends
5.6.1.1. Carbon Pools and Flux5.6.2. Pressures on Forests and Woodlands
5.6.1.2. Timber and Non-Wood Products
5.6.2.1. Climate Variability and Climate Change5.6.3. Responses by Forests and Woodlands and Impacts on their Goods and Services
5.6.2.2. Changes in Disturbance Regimes
5.6.2.2.1. Pressures from fires5.6.2.3. Changing Demand for Forest Goods and Services
5.6.2.2.2. Pressures from diseases and insect herbivory
5.6.2.2.3. Pressures from other disturbances
5.6.2.4. Land-Use Change
5.6.2.5. Other Pressures
5.6.3.1. Responses and Impacts: Carbon Storage5.6.4. Adaptation Options and Vulnerability of Forests and Woodlands
5.6.3.1.1. Forest and species distribution5.6.3.2. Responses and Impacts: Timber and Non-Wood Goods and Services
5.6.3.1.2. NPP and NEP
5.6.3.1.3. Insect herbivory, pests, and diseases
5.6.3.1.4. Elevated CO2
5.6.3.1.5. Climate-induced changes in variability and weather extremes5.6.3.2.1. Response to locally extreme events
5.6.3.2.2. Industrial timber
5.6.3.2.3. Recreation and non-wood forest products5.6.4.1. Adaptation in Timber and Non-Wood Goods and Services
5.6.4.2. Vulnerability Associated with NPP, NEP, and NBP
5.6.4.3. Vulnerability of Unmanaged Systems
5.6.4.4. Vulnerability in Managed Systems
5.7.1. Status of Goods and Services
5.7.2 Pressures on Goods and Services
5.7.3 Responses of Lakes and Streams and Impacts on their Goods and Services5.7.3.1. Adaptation in Timber and Non-Wood Goods and Services5.7.4 Adaptation Options
5.7.3.1.1. Ice cover5.7.3.2. Vulnerability Associated with NPP, NEP, and NBP
5.7.3.1.2. Direct use of water
5.7.3.3. Vulnerability of Unmanaged Systems
5.7.3.3.1. Eutrophication5.7.3.4. Vulnerability in Managed Systems
5.7.3.3.2. Acidification
5.7.3.3.3. Toxics5.7.3.4.1. Recreation
5.7.3.4.2. Heterogeneity in response
5.7.5 Vulnerability
5.8.1. State of Wetland Services
5.8.1.1. Habitat and Biodiversity5.8.2. Pressures on Wetland Services
5.8.1.2. Carbon Sink
5.8.1.3. Food and Fiber Production
5.8.2.1. Changes in Hydrology5.8.3. Impacts on Wetland Services
5.8.2.2. Changes in Temperature
5.8.2.3. Land-Use Change
5.8.3.1. Habitat and Biodiversity5.8.4. Adaptation Options for Wetlands
5.8.3.2. Carbon Sink
5.8.3.3. Food and Fiber
5.8.5. Vulnerability of Functions and Key Services of Wetlands
5.9. Arctic and Alpine Ecosystems
5.9.1. State and Trends of Goods and Services
5.9.1.1. Arctic Ecosystems5.9.2. Responses of Arctic and Alpine Ecosystems and Impacts on their Goods and Services
5.9.1.2. Alpine Ecosystems
5.9.2.1. Impacts Resulting from Changes in Climate on Arctic Ecosystems5.9.3. Adaptation Options
5.9.2.2. Impacts of Land-Use Change
5.9.4. Vulnerability
5.10. Research Needs across Ecosystems
Habiba Gitay (Australia), Sandra Brown (USA), William Easterling (USA), and Bubu Jallow (The Gambia)
Lead Authors:
J. Antle (USA), M. Apps (Canada), R. Beamish (Canada), T. Chapin (USA),
W. Cramer (Germany), J. Frangi (Argentina), J. Laine (Finland), Lin Erda (China),
J. Magnuson (USA), I. Noble (Australia), J. Price (USA), T. Prowse (Canada),
T. Root (USA), E. Schulze (Germany), O. Sirotenko (Russia), B. Sohngen (USA),
J. Soussana (France)
Contributing Authors:
H. Bugmann (Switzerland), C. Egorov (Russia), M. Finlayson (Australia),
R. Fleming (Canada), W. Fraser (USA), L. Hahn (USA), K. Hall (USA), M. Howden
(Australia), M. Hutchins (USA), J. Ingram (UK), Ju Hui (China), G. Masters (UK),
P. Megonigal (USA), J. Morgan (USA), N. Myers (UK), R. Neilson (USA), S. Page
(UK), C. Parmesan (USA), J. Rieley (UK), N. Roulet (Canada), G. Takle (USA),
J. van Minnen (The Netherlands), D. Williams (Canada), T. Williamson (Canada),
K. Wilson (USA)
Review Editors:
A. Fischlin (Switzerland) and S. Diaz (Argentina)
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