2.2. Detection of Response to Climate Change by Using Indicator Species or Systems
2.2.1. Detection in Natural Systems
2.2.1.1. Predicted Physical Responses to Climatic Warming Trends2.2.2. Interpretation of Causation from Correlative Data
2.2.1.2. Predicted Biological Responses to Climatic Warming Trends
2.2.1.3. Bioclimatic Models
2.2.1.4. Strengths and Limitations of Data
2.2.1.5. Data and Response Types
2.2.2.1. Lines of Evidence2.2.3. Detection in Managed Systems
2.2.2.2. Complex Systems and Responses
2.2.2.3. Methodological Considerations
2.2.3.1. Human Health2.2.4. Advances since the SAR and Future Needs
2.2.3.2. Agriculture
2.3. Anticipating Effects of Climate Change
2.3.1. Background
2.3.2. What are Appropriate Scales of Analysis for Impact Assessments?
2.3.3. What should be the Baseline for Comparison?
2.3.4. How should Integrated Scenarios of Climatic and Socioeconomic Change be Used?
2.3.5. What are the Prospects for Assessing the Impacts of Climatic Extremes and Variability?2.3.5.1. Developing Scenarios of Changes in Variability and Extreme Events2.3.6. How can Transient Effects be Included in Methods and Tools?
2.3.5.2. Estimating First-Order Impacts
2.3.5.3. Analyzing Institutional and Stakeholder Responses
2.3.5.4. Large-Scale Effects
2.3.7. What Recent Progress has been Made in Assessing Adaptive Capacity?
2.3.8. How can Vulnerability Assessments be Related to Policies for Reducing GHG Emissions?
2.5. Methods for Costing and Valuation
2.5.1. Elements of Costing and Valuation Methods
2.5.1.1. Opportunity Cost and the Foundations of Valuation Methods2.5.2. Market Impacts
2.5.1.2. Specifying the Baseline
2.5.1.3. Discounting the Future
2.5.2.1. Deadweight Loss2.5.3. Nonmarket Impacts
2.5.2.2. Preexisting Distortions
2.5.3.1. Direct Methods of Valuation2.5.4. Cost of Uncertainty
2.5.3.2. Indirect Methods of Valuation
2.5.4.1. Insurance and the Cost of Uncertainty2.5.5. Equity and Distribution
2.5.4.2. The Value of Information
2.5.4.3. Uncertainty and Discounting
2.5.5.1. Interpersonal Comparisons2.5.6. Alternative Metrics for Measuring Costs
2.5.5.2. Comparisons Across Nations
2.5.5.3. Ensuring Equity
2.6. Characterizing Uncertainty and "Levels of Confidence" in Climate Assessment
2.6.1. Treatments of Uncertainties in Previous IPCC Assessments
2.6.2. "Objective" and "Subjective" Probabilities are not Always Explicitly Distinguished
2.6.3. Making Estimates2.6.3.1. Identifying Extreme Values, Ranges, and Thresholds2.6.4. Aggregation and the Cascade of Uncertainty
2.6.3.2. Valuation Issues
2.6.5. The Debate over the Quality of Human Judgment
2.6.5.1. Deficiencies in Human Judgment2.6.6. Building Experience with Subjective Methods in a "Science for Policy" Assessment
2.6.5.2. Violation of Probability Laws
2.6.5.3. Overconfidence
2.7. Decision Analytic Methods and Frameworks
2.7.1. Decision Analysis to Support Adaptive DecisionsIntroduction to Frameworks and Principles
2.7.2. Major DAFs and their Use in Adaptation Studies2.7.2.1. Decision Analysis2.7.3. Relevance and Use of DAFs in Sectoral Adaptation DecisionsSelected Examples
2.7.2.2. Cost-Benefit Analysis
2.7.2.3. Cost-Effectiveness Analysis
2.7.2.4. Policy Exercise Approach
2.7.4. Relevance and Use of DAFs in Regional Adaptation DecisionsSelected Examples
2.7.5. Contribution of DAFs in Adaptation to Integrated Climate Change Decisions on Balancing Mitigation and Adaptation
Q.K. AHMAD (BANGLADESH) AND RICHARD A. WARRICK (NEW Z E A L A N D )
Lead Authors:
T.E. Downing (UK), S. Nishioka (Japan), K.S. Parikh (India), C. Parmesan (USA),
S.H. Schneider (USA), F. Toth (Germany), G. Yohe (USA)
Contributing Authors:
A.U. Ahmed (Bangladesh), P. Ayton (UK), B.B. Fitzharris (New Zealand), J.E.
Hay (New Zealand), R.N. Jones (Australia), G. Morgan (USA), R. Moss (USA), W.
North (USA), G. Petschel-Held (Germany), R. Richels (USA)
Review Editors:
I. Burton (Canada) and R. Kates (USA)
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