5. Improving Assessments of Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Adaptation
Advances have been made since previous IPCC assessments in the detection of
change in biotic and physical systems, and steps have been taken to improve
the understanding of adaptive capacity, vulnerability to climate extremes, and
other critical impact- related issues. These advances indicate a need for initiatives
to begin designing adaptation strategies and building adaptive capacities. Further
research is required, however, to strengthen future assessments and to reduce
uncertainties in order to assure that sufficient information is available for
policymaking about responses to possible consequences of climate change, including
research in and by developing countries. [8]
The following are high priorities for narrowing gaps between current knowledge
and policymaking needs:
- Quantitative assessment of the sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability
of natural and human systems to climate change, with particular emphasis on
changes in the range of climatic variation and the frequency and severity
of extreme climate events
- Assessment of possible thresholds at which strongly discontinuous responses
to projected climate change and other stimuli would be triggered
- Understanding dynamic responses of ecosystems to multiple stresses, including
climate change, at global, regional, and finer scales
- Development of approaches to adaptation responses, estimation of the effectiveness
and costs of adaptation options, and identification of differences in opportunities
for and obstacles to adaptation in different regions, nations, and populations
- Assessment of potential impacts of the full range of projected climate changes,
particularly for non-market goods and services, in multiple metrics and with
consistent treatment of uncertainties, including but not limited to numbers
of people affected, land area affected, numbers of species at risk, monetary
value of impact, and implications in these regards of different stabilization
levels and other policy scenarios
- Improving tools for integrated assessment, including risk assessment, to
investigate interactions between components of natural and human systems and
the consequences of different policy decisions
- Assessment of opportunities to include scientific information on impacts,
vulnerability, and adaptation in decisionmaking processes, risk management,
and sustainable development initiatives
- Improvement of systems and methods for long-term monitoring and understanding
the consequences of climate change and other stresses on human and natural
systems.
Cutting across these foci are special needs associated with strengthening international
cooperation and coordination for regional assessment of impacts, vulnerability,
and adaptation, including capacity-building and training for monitoring, assessment,
and data gathering, especially in and for developing countries (particularly
in relation to the items identified above).
