Figure 10.6: Analysis of
inter-model consistency in regional precipitation change based on the results
presented in Figure 10.5. Regions are classified
as showing either agreement on increase with an average change of greater than
20% (“Large increase”), agreement on increase with an average change
between 5 and 20% (“Small increase”), agreement on a change between
–5 and +5% or agreement with an average change between –5 and 5% (“No
change”), agreement on decrease with an average change between –5 and
-20% (“Small decrease”), agreement on decrease with an average change
of less than -20% (“Large decrease”), or disagreement (“Inconsistent
sign”). GG is the greenhouse gas only case (see Figure 10.5a), and, GS, the
greenhouse gas with increased sulphate case (see Figure
10.5b). In constructing the figure, ensemble results were averaged to a single
case, and “agreement” was defined as having at least of four the five
GG models agreeing or three of the four GS models agreeing.
