Figure 21: Analysis of inter-model
consistency in regional relative warming (warming relative to each model’s global
average warming). Regions are classified as showing either agreement on warming
in excess of 40% above the global average (‘Much greater than average warming’),
agreement on warming greater than the global average (‘Greater than average
warming’), agreement on warming less than the global average (‘Less than
average warming’), or disagreement amongst models on the magnitude of regional
relative warming (‘Inconsistent magnitude of warming’). There is also a category
for agreement on cooling (which never occurs). A consistent result from at least
seven of the nine models is deemed necessary for agreement. The global annual
average warming of the models used span 1.2 to 4.5°C for A2
and 0.9 to 3.4°C for B2, and therefore a regional
40% amplification represents warming ranges of 1.7 to 6.3°C for A2
and 1.3 to 4.7°C for B2. [Based on Chapter
10, Box
1 , Figure 1]]
