Figure 3-3: The
background shows the annual mean change of rainfall (color shading) for (a) the
SRES scenario A2 and (b) the SRES scenario B2. Both SRES scenarios show the period
2071 to 2100 relative to the period 1961 to 1990, and were performed by AOGCMs.
Scenarios A2 and B2 are shown as no AOGCM runs were available for the other SRES
scenarios. The boxes show an analysis of inter-model consistency in regional precipitation
change. Regions are classified as showing either agreement on increase with an
average change of greater than 20% ( large increase), agreement on increase with
an average change between 5 and 20% ( small increase), agreement on a change between
-5 and +5% or agreement with an average change between -5 and +5% ( no change),
agreement on decrease with an average change between -5 and -20% ( small decrease),
agreement on decrease with an average change of more than -20% ( large decrease),
or disagreement ( inconsistent sign). A consistent result from at least seven
of the nine models is defined as being necessary for agreement.
