Figure SPM-10b: Variations
of the Earth's surface temperature: years 1000 to 2100. From year 1000
to year 1860 variations in average surface temperature of the Northern Hemisphere
are shown (corresponding data from the Southern Hemisphere not available) reconstructed
from proxy data (tree rings, corals, ice cores, and historical records). The line
shows the 50-year average, the grey region the 95% confidence limit in the annual
data. From years 1860 to 2000 are shown variations in observations of globally
and annually averaged surface temperature from the instrumental record; the line
shows the decadal average. From years 2000 to 2100 projections of globally averaged
surface temperature are shown for the six illustrative SRES scenarios and IS92a
using a model with average climate sensitivity. The grey region marked "several
models all SRES envelope" shows the range of results from the full range of 35
SRES scenarios in addition to those from a range of models with different climate
sensitivities. The temperature scale is departure from the 1990 value; the scale
is different from that used in Figure SPM-2.
