Climate Change 2001:
Synthesis Report
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Figure 3-2: The background shows the annual mean change of temperature (color shading) for (a) the SRES scenario A2 and (b) the SRES scenario B2. Both SRES scenarios show the period 2071 to 2100 relative to the period 1961 to 1990, and were performed by AOGCMs. Scenarios A2 and B2 are shown as no AOGCM runs were available for the other SRES scenarios. The boxes show an analysis of inter-model consistency in regional relative warming (i.e., warming relative to each model's global average warming) for the same scenarios. Regions are classified as showing either agreement on warming in excess of 40% above the global mean annual average (much greater than average warming), agreement on warming greater than the global mean annual average (greater than average warming), agreement on warming less than the global mean annual average (less than average warming), or disagreement amongst models on the magnitude of regional relative warming (inconsistent magnitude of warming). There is also a category for agreement on cooling (this category never occurs). A consistent result from at least seven of the nine models is defined as being necessary for agreement. The global mean annual average warming of the models used span 1.2 to 4.5°C for A2 and 0.9 tO3.4°C for B2, and therefore a regional 40% amplification represents warming ranges of 1.7 to 6.3°C for A2 and 1.3 to 4.7°C for B2.

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