Does the Journal of the American Medical Association have NO standards for studies it publishes?
A study in the December 23/30 issue of JAMA, reports that "Handgun purchasers with prior misdemeanor convictions are at increased risk for future criminal activity, including violent an fire-arm related injuries."
Click here for the AP story. Click here for the study abstract.
But this study has such a basic flaw that JAMA editor George Lundberg might want to consider the former-future Speaker of the House Representatives Bob Livingston as a role model.
The researchers took a population of gun purchasers and divided them into two groups: those with a prior criminal history and those with no criminal records.
The researchers then found that gun purchasers with prior criminal records were 5 to 15 times more likely to commit crime in the future than gun purchasers with no prior criminal records.
But so what?
The scientific literature is replete with studies on criminal recidivism. People with past criminal records are more likely to engage in future criminal activity. What does this have to do with gun purchases?
This study is equivalent to one saying that car buyers with bad driving records are more likely to have bad driving records in the future. This conclusion implicates bad drivers, not car buyers.
Baseline criminal recidivism was not considered by these researchers. They failed to compare recidivism among gun purchasers with matched controls who were not gun purchasers. Based on this study, the researchers are incapable of concluding that gun purchasers with prior criminal records are more likely than others with criminal histories to commit future crime.
The study authors recommend expanding the criteria for denial of handgun purchases to those convicted of misdemeanor crimes. Since JAMA readers with criminal records are more likely to commit crimes in the future, should we deny their subscriptions?
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