Global mean surface air temperature change simulations for a doubling of CO2
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Year of publication
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Authors
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Climate change projection (°C)
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Type of model
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Origin of research group
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1980
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Manabe and Stouffer
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2.0
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GCM
|
USA
|
|
Manabe and Wetherald
|
3.0
|
GCM
|
USA
|
|
Potter
|
2.3 (N. Hem.)
|
GCM
|
USA
|
|
Wang and Stone
|
2.0–4.2
|
RCM
|
USA
|
1981
|
Cess and Goldenberg
|
1.5–1.8, 3.1
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EMB
|
USA
|
|
Charlock
|
1.58–2.25
|
RCM
|
USA
|
|
Gates et al.
|
0.2
|
GCM
|
USA
|
|
Hansen et al.
|
1.2–3.9
|
RCM
|
USA
|
|
Hummel and Reck
|
1.71–2.05
|
RCM
|
USA
|
|
Hunt
|
0.69–1.82
|
RCM
|
Australia
|
|
Kandel
|
0.7–8.7
|
EBM
|
France
|
|
Lacis et al.
|
2.9
|
RCM
|
USA
|
|
Ramanathan
|
0.3, 2.3
|
RCM
|
USA
|
|
Wang et al.
|
1.47–2.80
|
RCM
|
USA
|
|
Wetherald and Manabe
|
2.4–3.0
|
GCM
|
USA
|
1982
|
Chou et al.
|
2.3 (N. Hem.)
|
EBM
|
USA
|
|
Gilliland
|
2.26
|
EBM
|
USA
|
|
Hall et al.
|
2.4
|
RCM
|
USA
|
|
Hummel
|
1.29–1.83
|
RCM
|
USA
|
|
Lindzen et al.
|
1.46–1.93
|
RCM
|
USA
|
|
Schlesinger
|
2.0
|
GCM
|
USA
|
1983
|
Aleksandrov et al.
|
1.4
|
GCM
|
former USSR
|
|
Mitchell
|
0.16, 2.25
|
GCM
|
UK
|
|
Washington and Meehl
|
1.3
|
GCM
|
USA
|
1984
|
Cess and Potter
|
1.87
|
SDMb
|
USA
|
|
Gilliland and Schneider
|
1.6 (±0.3)
|
EBM
|
USA
|
|
Hansen et al
|
4.2–4.8
|
GCM
|
USA
|
|
Lal and Ramanathan
|
1.8–2.4
|
RCM
|
USA
|
|
Somerville and Remer
|
0.48–1.74
|
RCM
|
USA
|
|
Washington and Meehl
|
1.4–3.5
|
GCM
|
USA
|
1985
|
Liou et al.
|
2.3
|
RTMc
|
USA
|
|
Ou and Liou
|
2.5–4.3
|
RTM
|
USA
|
|
Owens et al.
|
1.7
|
RCM
|
USA
|
1986
|
Dickinson
|
3.7
|
|
|
|
Washington and Meehl
|
1.6
|
GCM
|
USA
|
1987
|
Mitchell and Warrilow
|
5.2
|
GCM
|
UK
|
|
Peng et al.
|
2.6
|
EBM
|
USA
|
|
Roeckner et al.
|
3.3
|
GCM
|
Germany
|
|
Wigley and Raper
|
1.2–3.5
|
EBM
|
UK
|
|
Wilson and Mitchell
|
5.2
|
GCM
|
UK
|
1988
|
Wetherald and Manabe
|
3.2–4.0
|
GCM
|
USA
|
1989
|
Mitchell et al.
|
1.9–3.5
|
GCM
|
UK
|
|
Noda and Tokioka
|
4.3
|
GCM
|
Japan
|
|
Schlesinger and Zhao
|
2.8–4.4
|
GCM
|
USA/China
|
|
Stouffer et al.
|
4.0
|
GCM
|
USA
|
|
Washington and Meehl
|
4.0
|
GCM
|
USA
|
1991
|
Jentsch
|
1.5–3.5
|
EBM
|
Germany
|
|
Stenchikov
|
1.4
|
GCM
|
former USSR
|
|
Wang et al.
|
4.2
|
GCM
|
USA
|
|
Washington and Meehl
|
1.6
|
GCM
|
USA
|
1992
|
Boer et al.
|
3.5
|
GCM
|
Canada
|
|
Cao et al.
|
1.78–6.3
|
RCM
|
UK
|
|
Cubasch et al.
|
0.6–2.6
|
GCM
|
Germany
|
|
Wigley and Raper
|
1.5–3.4
|
EBM
|
UK
|
1993
|
Charnock and Shine
|
1.5–2.4
|
RCM
|
UK
|
|
Manabe and Stouffer
|
3.5
|
GCM
|
USA
|
|
Meehl et al.
|
2.3
|
GCM
|
USA
|
|
Senior and Mitchell
|
1.9–5.4
|
GCM
|
UK
|
|
Wang et al.
|
1.75
|
GCM
|
China
|
1994
|
DeHann et al.
|
1.9
|
EBM
|
Netherlands/Austria
|
|
Gordon and Hunt
|
4.0
|
GCM
|
Australia
|
|
LeTreut et al.
|
3.6–3.9
|
GCM
|
France
|
|
Mahfouf et al.
|
1.4
|
GCM
|
France
|
|
Pollard and Thompson
|
2.06–2.27
|
GCM
|
USA
|
1995
|
Rind et al.
|
4.2–4.8
|
GCM
|
USA
|
Source: COMPARISON OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE SIMULATIONS FOR 2 × CO2-INDUCED WARMING Kavita Kacholia and Ruth A. Reck Climatic Change, January 1997, 53-69
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