From: "Michael E. Mann" To: Phil Jones Subject: Re: [Fwd: Re: Even more on Loehle's 2000 year climate analysis] Date: Wed, 05 Dec 2007 11:37:40 -0500 Reply-to: mann@psu.edu well put Phil, I think you've put your finger right on it. JGR-Atmospheres has been publishing some truly awful papers lately; we responded (Gavin, me, James Annan) to the awful Schwartz sensitivity estimate paper, but there are so many other bad papers that are appearing there (Chylak, etc.) that its just impossible to respond to them all. I hadn't seen this latest one though. McKitrick and Michaels team up again, wow! maybe McKitrick has figured ou the difference between radians and degrees this time! talk to you later, mike Phil Jones wrote: Mike, Also I see him writing things - then people saying you should write this up for a paper, as though it can be knocked up in an afternoon. He realises he can't do this - as it takes much longer. Then we wastes more and more time opening up new threads. He doesn't seem clever enough to realise this. Gavin and Rasmus have seen the attached piece of garbage! UAH is correct, therefore the land surface must be wrong. Let's adjust it for a dodgy reason - ah, it now agrees with UAH. Let's forget that the land now disagrees with the ocean surface. If only I'd thought of that first, I could have not bothered with the awful analysis. If only I'd just believed RSS in the first place. Cheers Phil At 15:16 05/12/2007, you wrote: HI Phil, thanks--thats good. Re, Loehle, McIntyre. Funny--w/ each awful paper E&E publishes, McIntyre realizes that it compromises the integrity of his own "work" even further. He can't distance himself from E&E much as he'd like to. He also seems to be losing lots of credibility now w/ all but his most loyal followers, which is good to see... mike Phil Jones wrote: Mike, Yes the 1990 graphic is in an Appendix. The last few are being regularly hassled by Thorsten. The guy from EPRI (Larry) really wants something submitted soon. So working here to get something in by end of Jan. Keith is going to get it fast-tracked through the Holocene - well that's the plan. The Loehle paper is awful as you know. So is another article on the IPCC process in E&E. I did look at Climate Audit a week or two back - I got the impression that McIntyre is trying to distance himself from some of these E&E articles by saying we have to be equally skeptical about them as well. Cheers Phil At 14:00 04/12/2007, you wrote: Hey Phil, thanks--nice coincidence in timing. So the 1990 graphic will be discussed in this review paper, right? Perfect, I'll let Gavin know. Will look into the AGU fellowship situation ASAP. I don't read E&E, gives me indigestion--I don't even consider it peer-reviewed science, and in my view we should treat it that way. i.e., don't cite, and if journalists ask us about a paper, simply explain its not peer-reviewed science, and Sonja B-C, the editor, has even admitted to an anti-Kyoto agenda! I do hope that Wei-Chyung pursues legal action here. So didn't see this recent paper, nor have I heard about the IJC paper, Christy and Spencer continue to lose more and more scientific credibility with each awful paper they publish. Gavin is planning to do something on the Loehle paper on RealClimate, I'm staying away from it. I have a revised set of hemispheric reconstructions which I'll send you soon, its basically what I showed at AGU last year. Submitted to PNAS--more soon on that, mike Phil Jones wrote: Mike, Some text came last night from Caspar. Keith/Tim writing their parts still. I have text from Francis, so almost all here now. Still need to find some time - maybe the Christmas/New Year break here - to put it all together. There is so much else going on here at the moment with other papers, it will be hard to find some time. I wish they had all responded much sooner! As for AGU - just getting one of their Fellowships would be fine. I take it you've seen the attached in E&E. I've not heard any more from Wei-Chyung in the past couple of months. I'm working on a paper on urbanization. I can show China is hardly affected. Will send for you to look over when I have it in a form that is sendable. Would appreciate your thoughts on how I will have said things. Have another awful pdf of a paper accepted in IJC !! It ws rejected by all three reviewers for GRL! It is by Douglass, Christy , Singer et al - thus you'll know what it is on. Have booked flights for Tahiti in April, just need to do the hotel now. Cheers Phil Cheers Phil At 02:07 04/12/2007, you wrote: Hi Phil, I hope things are going well these days, and that the recent round of attacks have died down. seems like some time since I've heard from you. Please see below: Gavin was wondering if there is any update in status on this? By the way, still looking into nominating you for an AGU award, I've been told that the Ewing medal wouldn't be the right one. Let me know if you have any particular options you'd like me to investigate... thanks, mike -------- Original Message -------- Subject: Re: Even more on Loehle's 2000 year climate analysis Date: 03 Dec 2007 20:59:58 -0500 From: Gavin Schmidt [1] To: Michael E. Mann [2] References: [3]<3.0.3.32.20071203130209.0123fd18@mail.skybest.com> [4]<3.0.3.32.20071202224717.012384a8@mail.skybest.com> [5]<3.0.3.32.20071201123550.01237954@mail.skybest.com> [6]<3.0.3.32.20071201123550.01237954@mail.skybest.com> [7]<3.0.3.32.20071202224717.012384a8@mail.skybest.com> [8]<3.0.3.32.20071203130209.0123fd18@mail.skybest.com> [9]<3.0.3.32.20071203141259.0126c33c@mail.skybest.com> [10]<475457F3.9070102@meteo.psu.edu> this reminds me. What's the status of Phil Jones and Caspar's investigation of the IPCC90 curve? Phil wanted us to hold off for some reason, but is that done with? That's a great story that needs to be told. Gavin On Mon, 2007-12-03 at 14:24, Michael E. Mann wrote: > thanks Eric, > > That's great. I've again copied in Gavin so that he has this info too. > > Will keep you in the loop! > > mike > > Eric Swanson wrote: > > Hi Mike, > > > > I do hope you all are able to put this all together. > > There were several comments on CA about RealClimate, suggesting that > > RC wouldn't say anything, as E&E publication has such a bad rap. > > > > Perhaps my biggest complaint was also one mentioned by another > > poster > > on CA. I don't like using a simple linear interpolation between > > data points for these series where there are many years between > > samples. > > Here's the other fellow's comments: > > > > [11] http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2380#comment-162478 > > [12] http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2380#comment-162654 > > [13] http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2380#comment-162665 > > > > I would go further than that. These data sets represent samples of > > time records. The sampling does not produce a value for a single > > year. > > Rather, each sample represents some number of years of the variable > > as averaged in the process of collecting the material to be > > analyzed. > > > > Consider an ocean sediment core, such as Keigwin's data. The > > subcores > > are sampled every 1.0 cm. Assume the material is taken with a device > > that > > collects mud from a 0.4 cm area along the core. Thus, the sample > > would > > contain 4/10 of the material deposited at that 1 cm per sample rate > > of > > change in time. If the age/depth model at that point yields a 100 > > year > > per cm rate, then the sample would represent an average over 40 > > years. > > Simple linear interpolation assumes a continuously varying change > > between > > the points, while the sampling process would give a brief 40 year > > value > > with the other 60 years being unknown. What if the entire cm of the > > core > > were analyzed? One would not know unless one had contacted each > > research > > group that did the analysis and requested more information than that > > which > > might be found in the published reports. > > > > NOTE: I looked at Keigwin's data when I wrote a comment on Loehle's > > 2004 paper > > > > Comments on "Climate change: detection and attribution of trends > > from long-term > > geologic data" by C. Loehle [Ecological Modelling 171 (4) (2004) > > 433-450], > > Ecological Modelling 192 (2006) 314-316 > > > > You may add my name to the list for what it's worth. > > > > Best Regards, > > > > Eric Swanson > > -------------------------------------------------------------- > > At 01:18 PM 12/3/07 -0500, you wrote: > > >>>> > > Eric--this is great, thanks for all of the info. I've taken > > the liberty of forwarding to Gavin, as we're thinking of > > doing an RC post on this, and this would be very useful. We > > should certainly list you as a "co-author" on this, if thats > > ok w/ you? > > > > Looking forward to hearing what else you find here! > > > > mike > > > > > > > > -- > Michael E. Mann > Associate Professor > Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) > > Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 > 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 > The Pennsylvania State University email: [14]mann@psu.edu > University Park, PA 16802-5013 > > [15] http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm > -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: [16]mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 [17] http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [18]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: [19]mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 [20] http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [21]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: [22]mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 [23] http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [24]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: [25]mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 [26]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm References Visible links 1. mailto:gschmidt@giss.nasa.gov 2. mailto:mann@psu.edu 3. mailto:3.0.3.32.20071203130209.0123fd18@mail.skybest.com 4. mailto:3.0.3.32.20071202224717.012384a8@mail.skybest.com 5. mailto:3.0.3.32.20071201123550.01237954@mail.skybest.com 6. mailto:3.0.3.32.20071201123550.01237954@mail.skybest.com 7. mailto:3.0.3.32.20071202224717.012384a8@mail.skybest.com 8. mailto:3.0.3.32.20071203130209.0123fd18@mail.skybest.com 9. mailto:3.0.3.32.20071203141259.0126c33c@mail.skybest.com 10. mailto:475457F3.9070102@meteo.psu.edu 11. http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2380#comment-162478 12. http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2380#comment-162654 13. http://www.climateaudit.org/?p=2380#comment-162665 14. mailto:mann@psu.edu 15. http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm 16. mailto:mann@psu.edu 17. http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm 18. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk 19. mailto:mann@psu.edu 20. http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm 21. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk 22. mailto:mann@psu.edu 23. http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm 24. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk 25. mailto:mann@psu.edu 26. http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm Hidden links: 27. http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm